法国《费加罗报》网站4月13日刊登题为《伊朗的战争重新推动全球煤炭消费》的文章，作者是埃尔莎·邦巴龙

On April 13th, the website of Le Figaro in France published an article titled "Iran's War Revives Global Coal Consumption", written by Elsa Bonbaron.

日本放宽了对其污染最严重的燃煤电厂的运营限制。

Japan has relaxed the operational restrictions on its most polluting coal-fired power plants.

离我们更近的意大利，将其燃煤电厂的关闭时间推迟了十三年，至2038年。德国总理弗里德里希·默茨正在让本国公众为政策倒退做好准备。他认为，德国对燃煤电厂的需求可能比原计划的时间更长，并补充说他“不准备为了履行几年前的承诺而危及（本国）的能源平衡”。

Closer to us, Italy has postponed the closure of its coal-fired power plants by thirteen years, until 2038. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is preparing the public in his country for a policy reversal. He believes that the demand for coal-fired power plants in Germany may last longer than originally planned, and adds that he "is not prepared to jeopardize (the country's) energy balance in order to fulfill a commitment made several years ago."

这些国家有一个共同点：在电力生产上高度依赖天然气。并且对这类资源的可用性有着共同的担忧。虽然目前还没有出现需要担忧的短缺，但等到今年冬天，除了发电厂之外，西方国家的取暖锅炉也将重新点燃，届时情况又会如何？对价格又会造成什么影响？

These countries share one common feature: they are highly dependent on natural gas for electricity production. And they all have the same concerns about the availability of such resources. Although there is no shortage that requires concern at present, when this winter comes, not only power plants but also heating boilers in Western countries will be restarted. What will the situation be then? And what impact will it have on prices?

伊朗战争导致霍尔木兹海峡关闭，生产设施也遭到了打击。

The war in Iran led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and also caused damage to production facilities.

其后果立即反映在了加油站的燃料价格上。

The consequences were immediately reflected in the fuel prices at the gas stations.

对天然气市场，尤其是液化天然气市场的冲击则更为隐蔽：供暖季即将结束，库存起到了缓冲作用，美国的出口已部分接替了供应。

The impact on the natural gas market, especially the liquefied natural gas market, is more subtle: The heating season is coming to an end, and the inventory serves as a buffer. The United States' exports have partially taken over the supply.

德国斯图加特大学研究员、能源专家安娜-索菲·科尔博总结说：“石油危机的影响是立竿见影的。而对于天然气，引信则更长。”

Anna-Sophie Kober, a researcher and energy expert from the University of Stuttgart, Germany, concluded: "The impact of the oil crisis is immediate. But for natural gas, the effect is more prolonged."

某家大型企业集团的一位代表补充说：“天然气价格应不会暴涨，至少不会像2022年俄罗斯供应中断时那样剧烈。我们唯一能确定的是，我们正朝着价格大幅波动的方向发展。”其风险在于，当需求最为旺盛的时候，价格可能会急剧飙升。

A representative from a large enterprise group added, "The price of natural gas should not skyrocket, at least not as sharply as it did when Russia's supply was disrupted in 2022. The only thing we can be certain of is that we are moving in the direction of significant price fluctuations." The risk is that when demand is at its peak, prices may surge sharply.

对许多面临五年内第二次天然气危机的国家来说，绝不可能坐等最终局势失控才采取措施。它们正在为主要用于运行燃气发电厂的液化天然气寻找替代方案。

For many countries facing a second gas crisis within five years, it is impossible to wait until the situation gets completely out of control before taking action. They are looking for alternative sources of liquefied natural gas to replace the ones mainly used for operating gas power plants.

安娜-索菲·科尔博指出：“亚洲国家严重依赖从中东进口的天然气和石油。2026年经由霍尔木兹海峡运输的液化天然气中，近90%是运往亚洲的。”她补充说，为了摆脱这种依赖，这些国家“正将重点转向本地生产：即可再生能源电力和燃煤电厂”。煤炭价格也未能幸免于整体上涨的态势，自冲突开始以来已回升了约20%。但远不及同期天然气价格翻倍的程度。此外，专家们并不担心未来几个月会出现价格暴涨或供应困难。

Anna-Sofie Kolbou pointed out: "Asian countries heavily rely on natural gas and oil imported from the Middle East. Nearly 90% of the liquefied natural gas transported through the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 was destined for Asia." She added that in order to break free from this dependence, these countries "are shifting their focus to local production: namely, renewable energy electricity and coal-fired power plants." Coal prices have also not escaped the overall upward trend, having rebounded by approximately 20% since the conflict began. However, this is far less than the doubling of natural gas prices during the same period. Moreover, experts are not worried about a price surge or supply difficulties in the coming months.

事实上，煤炭受地缘政治不确定性的影响较小。这首先是因为它是一种本地资源。煤炭运输路线相比其他资源更不容易被切断。另一个则是早在伊朗战争爆发前就已存在的趋势，也在推动燃煤发电。

In fact, coal is less affected by geopolitical uncertainties. This is primarily because it is a local resource. The transportation routes for coal are less prone to being cut off compared to other resources. Another factor is the trend that had already existed before the outbreak of the Iran War, which is also driving the use of coal for power generation.

电力需求的增长，尤其是为数据中心和人工智能计算设备供电的需求，已导致燃气发电厂涡轮机的订单大幅增加。

The growth in electricity demand, especially for powering data centers and artificial intelligence computing equipment, has led to a significant increase in orders for gas-fired power plant turbines.

制造商的订单册已经排满。通用电气燃气发电欧洲区副总裁布里斯·雷松表示：“所有涡轮机制造商都不得不提高产能。”

The manufacturer's order book is already full. Bruce Reeson, vice president of General Electric's gas power generation business in Europe, said: "All turbine manufacturers have had to increase their production capacity."

而在燃煤涡轮机方面，工业界面临的供应紧张程度则要小得多。事实上，并非所有国家都选择了新建燃煤机组。在日本、德国、意大利以及韩国，首要做法是延长现有基础设施的使用寿命，甚至重新启用一些已被封存的电厂。这也是唐纳德·特朗普在美国采取的策略，他依靠煤炭来缓冲与人工智能相关的电力需求增长所带来的冲击，并避免美国本土天然气价格飙升。

In the case of coal-fired turbines, the supply shortage faced by the industry is much less severe. In fact, not all countries have chosen to build new coal-fired power plants. In Japan, Germany, Italy, and South Korea, the primary approach is to extend the lifespan of existing infrastructure and even reopen some of the shuttered power plants. This is also the strategy adopted by Donald Trump in the United States, who relies on coal to cushion the impact of the growth in electricity demand related to artificial intelligence and to avoid a surge in domestic natural gas prices.

煤炭重新获得青睐可能会引发对温室气体排放飙升的担忧，然而，现在衡量“煤电”重启对排放的实际影响还为时过早，因为这些电厂并非都需要“基本负荷”运行。

The renewed favor for coal may raise concerns about a surge in greenhouse gas emissions. However, it is too early to measure the actual impact of the restart of "coal power" on emissions, as not all these power plants need to operate at "base load".

巴黎政治学院教授、能源专家蒂埃里·布罗斯总结说：“能源转型也许不会以我们预期的形式出现。正在浮现的并非天然气与可再生能源的组合，而是煤炭与可再生能源的双人舞。”

Thierry Broos, a professor at the Paris School of Political Studies and an energy expert, concluded: "The energy transition may not occur in the form we expected. What is emerging is not a combination of natural gas and renewable energy, but rather a duet of coal and renewable energy."

最后，煤炭的回归可能会重新洗牌天然气和石油外交的格局。一些国家可能会大大降低对它们的依赖，从而实际上削弱沙特阿拉伯或卡塔尔等国的国际影响力。

Finally, the return of coal may reshuffle the diplomatic landscape of natural gas and oil. Some countries may significantly reduce their reliance on them, thereby actually weakening the international influence of countries like Saudi Arabia or Qatar.

这是一个这些国家不惜一切代价想要避免的情景，但它很可能不可避免。蒂埃里·布罗斯补充说：“一座燃煤电厂一旦建成，就要运行三十年；一座煤矿一旦开采，就要开采一百年。”他将此次煤炭的回归视为“一个真正的反乌托邦能源情景”。

This is a scenario that these countries are willing to do everything to avoid, but it is likely to be inevitable. Thierry Broos added: "Once a coal-fired power plant is built, it has to operate for thirty years; once a coal mine is exploited, it has to be mined for a hundred years." He regarded this return of coal as "a truly dystopian energy scenario".