全球范围内，煤炭市场迎来阶段性回升。美以伊冲突导致油气市场波动，长期供应中断担忧加剧，欧洲和亚洲正重新将煤炭推到台前。市场认为，高价天然气加速推动“气转煤”。与此同时，美国化石燃料支持政策伴随本土电价激增，使得煤电在美重新“抬头”。目前来看，煤炭长期退市之路正变得更加漫长。

Globally, the coal market has experienced a temporary recovery. The conflict between the US and Iran has led to fluctuations in the oil and gas market, and concerns over long-term supply disruptions have intensified. Europe and Asia are once again bringing coal to the forefront. The market believes that the high price of natural gas is accelerating the "transition from gas to coal". At the same time, the support policies for fossil fuels in the US, coupled with the sharp increase in local electricity prices, have caused coal power to regain its footing in the US. At present, the long-term path for coal to exit the market is becoming even more lengthy.

煤炭兜底保供作用回升

The role of coal in ensuring stable supply has strengthened.

国际能源署署长法提赫·比罗尔表示：“高昂的能源价格将促使国家和企业不得不寻求其他选择。无论是用于发电还是工业领域的煤炭使用量，如果短期内上升，谁也不会感到惊讶。”

The head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, said: "The high energy prices will force countries and enterprises to seek alternative options. Whether it is the coal usage for power generation or in industrial sectors, if it increases in the short term, no one will be surprised."

煤炭价格已对地缘政治紧张局势做出反应，全球主要区域市场波动明显。3月最后一周，欧洲动力煤市场波动加剧，但仍然保持在高位水平，西欧ARA港口煤炭价格指数从每吨105美元上涨至125—130美元。

The price of coal has responded to the geopolitical tensions. There have been significant fluctuations in major global market regions. In the last week of March, the European thermal coal market experienced intensified fluctuations, but remained at a high level. The coal price index at the Western European ARA ports rose from $105 per ton to $125 - $130 per ton.

3月，亚洲地区液化天然气价格飙升至2023年以来的最高水平，一度达到25.40美元/百万英热单位。在此背景下，亚洲成为煤炭消费量增长最快的地区。截至3月底，亚洲电厂燃料基准澳大利亚纽卡斯尔煤炭期货价格今年已上涨约1/3。彭博社汇编数据显示，3月10日，澳大利亚纽卡斯尔煤炭价格达到150美元/吨，是去年11月以来最高水平，3月初甚至一度触及2024年以来最高点。

In March, the price of liquefied natural gas in Asia soared to its highest level since 2023, reaching as high as 25.40 US dollars per million British thermal units. Against this backdrop, Asia became the region with the fastest growth in coal consumption. By the end of March, the benchmark Australian Newcastle coal futures price for power plant fuels in Asia had risen by approximately one-third this year. Data compiled by Bloomberg shows that on March 10, the price of Australian Newcastle coal reached 150 US dollars per ton, the highest level since November last year, and even reached its highest point since 2024 in early March.

“显然，我们正面临新一轮规模巨大的能源供应冲击，这可能会让亚洲部分经济体改变长期战略，即更长时间、更大规模地依赖煤炭。”高盛全球大宗商品研究联席主管萨曼莎·达特表示。

"Clearly, we are currently experiencing a new round of massive energy supply shocks, which may cause some Asian economies to alter their long-term strategies, namely to rely more heavily on coal for a longer period and on a larger scale," said Samantha Dart, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs.

能源供应危机背景下，煤炭的基荷能源、兜底保供属性愈发突出，是可再生能源或天然气供应不足时的默认备用选项。全球可持续煤炭联盟首席执行官米歇尔·曼努克认为，如果没有煤炭，当前供应短缺情况将会更糟，未来的煤炭使用应当具有战略意义。“多元化才是最佳路径”。

Under the backdrop of the energy supply crisis, the base-load energy and the guarantee supply attributes of coal have become increasingly prominent. It serves as the default backup option when renewable energy or natural gas supplies are insufficient. The CEO of the Global Sustainable Coal Alliance, Michelle Manuck, believes that without coal, the current supply shortage situation would be even worse, and the use of coal in the future should have strategic significance. "Diversification is the best approach."

智库能源转型研究所负责人普特拉·阿迪古纳表示：“重新增加煤炭使用，无疑是一个信号，即转向天然气并不像听起来那么容易。”

Preeta Adiguna, the head of the Energy Transition Institute at the think tank, said: "Reintroducing the use of coal is undoubtedly a signal that the shift to natural gas is not as straightforward as it seems."

亚洲多国放宽用煤限制

Many Asian countries have relaxed restrictions on coal usage.

伍德麦肯兹咨询公司全球动力煤市场主管托尼·克努森指出，天然气供应不足的经济体将被迫转向煤炭，“因为他们别无选择”。

Tony Knudson, the global power coal market director of Wood Mackenzie Consulting Company, pointed out that economies with insufficient natural gas supplies will be forced to turn to coal, "because they have no other choice."

日本、韩国是液化天然气主要进口方，同时也拥有众多燃煤电厂。韩国日前取消燃煤发电上限，允许在空气污染程度低且液化天然气供应短缺时增加煤炭使用。日经新闻报道称，日本近期也解除了燃煤发电限制，寻求通过提高煤电比例，确保电力稳定供应。3月27日，日本经济产业省提议，在4月开始的下一财年增加燃煤发电量，包括允许效率较低的燃煤电厂在新财年参与容量市场拍卖。

Japan and South Korea are major importers of liquefied natural gas and also have numerous coal-fired power plants. Recently, South Korea lifted the cap on coal-fired power generation, allowing increased coal usage when air pollution levels are low and there is a shortage of liquefied natural gas. The Nikkei News reported that Japan has also lifted the restrictions on coal-fired power generation and is seeking to ensure stable power supply by increasing the proportion of coal power. On March 27th, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan proposed to increase coal-fired power generation in the next fiscal year, including allowing less efficient coal-fired power plants to participate in the capacity market auction in the new fiscal year.

菲律宾于4月1日开始提高燃煤电厂发电量，以降低电力成本，同时保留从印尼增加煤炭采购的选择权。孟加拉国则寻求20亿美元贷款，以确保进口足够燃料度过夏季，该国正在满负荷运转燃煤电厂。

On April 1st, the Philippines began to increase the power generation capacity of its coal-fired power plants in an effort to reduce electricity costs, while retaining the option to increase coal purchases from Indonesia. Bangladesh is seeking a $2 billion loan to ensure sufficient fuel imports to last through the summer. The country is operating its coal-fired power plants at full capacity.

值得注意的是，印尼作为全球最大煤炭出口国，正优先保障国内使用而非出口，这可能会收紧区域供应并进一步推高煤炭价格。

It is worth noting that as the world's largest coal exporter, Indonesia is prioritizing domestic consumption over exports. This could lead to a tightening of regional supply and further drive up coal prices.

国际能源及大宗商品价格评估机构阿格斯指出，在经历天气相关的电力短缺后，越南增加了煤炭进口，但由于来自印尼的供应变得不确定，越南正考虑从美国和老挝进口煤炭。

The Agence France-Presse (Afp), an international energy and commodities price assessment agency, stated that after experiencing power shortages related to weather conditions, Vietnam increased its coal imports. However, due to the uncertainty of supplies from Indonesia, Vietnam is considering importing coal from the United States and Laos.

印度作为全球主要煤炭消费国和生产国，也在加大煤炭用量，截至3月底拥有足够使用约3个月的煤炭库存。印度要求燃煤电厂推迟自愿停产检修，多家印度水泥厂正在为未来2—3个月储备煤炭。印度政府表示，预计今夏将更多依赖煤炭来满足电力需求。印度煤炭公司旗下子公司西部煤田技术总监阿南吉·普拉萨德表示，地缘冲突再次凸显了煤炭的重要性。

As a major global consumer and producer of coal, India is also increasing its coal usage. As of the end of March, it has sufficient coal reserves to last for about three months. India has requested that coal-fired power plants postpone their voluntary shutdown for maintenance. Many Indian cement factories are stocking up on coal for the next 2-3 months. The Indian government stated that it is expected to rely more on coal to meet electricity demands this summer. Anandhi Prasad, the technical director of the Western Coalfield subsidiary of the Indian Coal Corporation, said that the renewed geopolitical conflicts have once again highlighted the importance of coal.

欧美煤炭用量将增加

The consumption of coal in Europe and America will increase.

在欧洲，如果天然气价格持续居高不下，荷兰、波兰和捷克的煤炭使用量可能不断增加。德国正在考虑重启已停用的燃煤电厂，以此来稳定电价。

In Europe, if the price of natural gas remains high, the use of coal in the Netherlands, Poland and the Czech Republic is likely to increase. Germany is considering restarting the mothballed coal-fired power plants in an effort to stabilize electricity prices.

伦敦证券交易所集团估计，如果欧洲天然气基准价格维持在每兆瓦时50欧元左右，今夏欧洲各国煤炭发电量可能比去年同期增加约20%。

The London Stock Exchange Group estimates that if the European gas benchmark price remains at around 50 euros per megawatt-hour, the coal-fired power generation in European countries this summer is likely to increase by approximately 20% compared to the same period last year.

美国方面，煤炭也在重获青睐。特朗普重返白宫以来大力推广煤炭，颁布措施要求“激活煤矿开采”，宣布“能源紧急状态”以延迟关停煤电厂，并放松对其监管。

In the United States, coal is also regaining popularity. Since Trump returned to the White House, he has vigorously promoted coal, issued measures to "activate coal mining", declared an "energy emergency" to delay the closure of coal power plants, and relaxed regulations on them.

2月，美国宣布，将利用政府资金和五角大楼的合同来维持国内燃煤电厂运营。同时，美国能源部将向肯塔基、北卡罗来纳、俄亥俄、弗吉尼亚和西弗吉尼亚5个州的6家燃煤电厂，提供1.75亿美元升级资金，以延长电厂使用年限并提高效率。

In February, the United States announced that it would use government funds and Pentagon contracts to maintain the operation of domestic coal-fired power plants. At the same time, the US Department of Energy will provide 175 million US dollars in upgrade funds to six coal-fired power plants in five states - Kentucky, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and West Virginia - to extend the lifespan of the plants and improve their efficiency.

值得注意的是，2025年美国煤炭发电量同比增长12%，是近10年来首次出现显著回升，直接对冲了天然气价格上涨带来的电力供应缺口，成为仅次于天然气的第二大电力来源。美国能源信息署数据显示，2025年美国电力行业煤炭消费量同比增长11%，占全国煤炭总消费的90%以上。

It is worth noting that in 2025, the coal-generated electricity in the United States increased by 12% year-on-year, marking the first significant recovery in nearly a decade. This directly offset the power supply gap caused by the rise in natural gas prices, making coal the second-largest source of electricity after natural gas. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that in 2025, the consumption of coal in the U.S. power industry increased by 11% year-on-year, accounting for over 90% of the total coal consumption in the country.

与此同时，2025年美国总计退役4.6吉瓦燃煤发电能力，为2008年以来最低水平。电网基建落后、电力短缺担忧使得物美价廉的煤电得到“续命”机会。当前，全美电价正在攀升。哥伦比亚广播公司报道称，2025年全美监管机构批准了43项电价上调，总额达116亿美元，约5600万民众受到影响。美国能源信息署预测，2026年，美国居民电价将上涨近4%。哈里斯民调最新调查显示，57%的美国人支持延长燃煤电厂运营时间，以满足日益增长的能源需求、维持较低的用能成本。

Meanwhile, in 2025, the total coal-fired power generation capacity in the United States was retired by 4.6 gigawatts, reaching the lowest level since 2008. The backwardness of power grid infrastructure and concerns over power shortages have given coal power, which is cost-effective, a chance to "survive". Currently, electricity prices across the United States are rising. CBS reported that in 2025, the regulatory authorities in the United States approved 43 price hikes, totaling $11.6 billion, affecting approximately 56 million people. The U.S. Energy Information Administration predicts that in 2026, the electricity prices for residents in the United States will increase by nearly 4%. The latest Harris poll shows that 57% of Americans support extending the operating time of coal-fired power plants to meet the growing energy demand and maintain lower energy costs.