投资者正在寻找促使特朗普在伊朗战争上做出政策转变的“痛苦点”，这位美国总统在社交媒体上的帖子正在引发石油市场的剧烈波动。

Investors are looking for "pain points" that could prompt Trump to make a policy shift regarding the war in Iran. The president's posts on social media are causing significant fluctuations in the oil market.

自特朗普发动中东战争以来，他往往在石油市场休市的周末加大对伊朗政权的威胁力度，而在油价上涨时暗示和平即将到来。这些信息是其政府为在中期选举前几个月抑制汽油价格通胀所做的努力的一部分——届时可负担性危机将成为选民的核心议题。

Since Trump launched the war in the Middle East, he has often intensified his threats against the Iranian regime during weekends when the oil market is closed, while suggesting that peace is on the horizon when oil prices rise. These pieces of information are part of the efforts made by his government to curb gasoline price inflation in the months leading up to the mid-term elections - at which point the affordability crisis will become a core issue for voters.

这一模式凸显了石油市场对冲突进程的重要性，以及白宫至少在目前为止在防止原油(607, -8.60, -1.40%)价格失控方面取得的成功。

This model highlights the significance of the oil market in the conflict process, as well as the success that the White House has achieved so far in preventing the runaway prices of crude oil.

“很明显，（特朗普）害怕高昂的汽油价格……汽油超过4美元是政治杀手，”Onyx Capital Group石油分析师豪尔赫·蒙特佩克（Jorge Montepeque）表示。“账本的另一边是他的自尊。他不能被视为失败者。”

"Clearly, (Trump) is afraid of the high gasoline prices... Gas prices exceeding $4 are a political killer," said Jorge Montepeque, an oil analyst at Onyx Capital Group. "On the other side of the ledger is his self-esteem. He cannot be seen as a failure."

布伦特原油在3月9日触及每桶119美元上方的高点，并在过去几周剧烈震荡，因伊朗对穿越霍尔木兹海峡的船只以及海湾地区的能源设施发动了打击。

Brent crude oil reached a high above $119 per barrel on March 9th and has experienced significant fluctuations in the past few weeks due to Iran's attacks on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and energy facilities in the Gulf region.

美国消费者和企业开始感受到影响：汽油价格已上涨超过三分之一，接近每加仑4美元，而对工业至关重要的柴油价格已超过5美元。

American consumers and businesses are beginning to feel the impact: The price of gasoline has risen by more than a third, approaching $4 per gallon, while the price of diesel, which is crucial for industry, has exceeded $5.

一位资深能源交易员指出了他们眼中清晰的模式：每当美国油价接近每桶95至100美元时，政府的缓和言论就会升级，市场上关于政府可能干预石油市场的猜测也会升温。美国油价目前较布伦特原油低约10美元。他们表示，到目前为止，这种“口头干预”有助于抑制价格。但他们也警告，如果实物短缺开始显现，市场可能大幅上涨。

A seasoned energy trader pointed out a clear pattern in their view: whenever the US oil price approaches $95 to $100 per barrel, the government's conciliatory remarks will intensify, and speculation about the government's possible intervention in the oil market will also heat up. Currently, the US oil price is about $10 lower than Brent crude. They stated that so far, this "verbal intervention" has helped to curb the price. However, they also warned that if physical shortages start to emerge, the market could rise significantly.

一些交易员表示，考虑到伊朗战争造成的破坏规模，他们认为油价应该更高，但没有多少人敢与特朗普通过社交媒体帖子和电视采访进行的干预对着干——他们认为这些干预旨在打压价格。

Some traders said that considering the scale of the damage caused by the war in Iran, they believed the oil price should be higher. However, not many people dared to oppose the intervention carried out by Trump through social media posts and TV interviews - they believed that these interventions were aimed at depressing the price.

白宫发言人泰勒·罗杰斯（Taylor Rogers）表示：“这些说法完全不实。特朗普总统一直向美国人民完全透明地说明这些暂时性的短期干扰，他专注于做正确的事情，即消除伊朗恐怖主义政权对美国及我们盟友的威胁。”

White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers said: "These claims are completely untrue. President Trump has been fully transparent with the American people about these temporary and short-term disruptions. He is focused on doing the right thing, which is to eliminate the threat posed by the Iranian terrorist regime to the United States and our allies."

自去年此时在关税问题上反复摇摆以来——当时他多次掉头催生了“特朗普总是退缩”（TACO）的说法，投资者已习惯了特朗普反复无常的决策风格。但过去一周相互矛盾的信息将特朗普的不可预测性推向了新的高度。

Since he repeatedly vacillated on the tariff issue last year - at that time, his frequent changes led to the "Trump Always Backtracks" (TACO) claim - investors have become accustomed to Trump's erratic decision-making style. But the conflicting information over the past week has pushed Trump's unpredictability to a new level.

自上周五以来，美国政府威胁要从战略石油储备中释放数亿桶石油，向中东部署了陆军第82空降师的精锐伞兵部队，并威胁要“摧毁”伊朗的发电厂，同时暗示与身份不明的伊朗官员的和平谈判进展顺利。

Since last Friday, the US government has threatened to release hundreds of millions of barrels of oil from its strategic petroleum reserve, deployed the elite paratrooper unit of the 82nd Airborne Division of the Army to the Middle East, threatened to "destroy" Iran's power plants, and at the same time hinted that the peace negotiations with unidentified Iranian officials are progressing smoothly.

纽约经纪公司Jones Trading的迈克·奥罗克（Mike O’Rourke）表示：“现在有如此多的竞争性头条新闻，有的指向伊朗战争升级，有的指向降级，我们已经进入了虚构的领域。”

Mike O'Rourke from the New York brokerage firm Jones Trading said: "With so many competing headlines, some pointing to an escalation of the war in Iran and others pointing to a downgrade, we have entered the realm of fiction."

与此同时，美国借贷成本已升至近12个月来最高水平，因为油价上涨推高了通胀预期，并迫使交易员承认美联储今年可能不会降息。设定政府借贷成本的基准10年期美债收益率本月迄今已上涨约0.4个百分点，为2024年底以来最差表现。

Meanwhile, borrowing costs in the United States have risen to their highest level in nearly 12 months, as rising oil prices have pushed up inflation expectations and forced traders to acknowledge that the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates this year. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield, which sets the base for government borrowing costs, has risen by approximately 0.4 percentage points so far this month, marking the worst performance since the end of 2024.

揣测下一个“TACO时刻”何时到来已成为华尔街最新的痴迷。德意志银行跨资产策略主管马克西米利安·乌勒（Maximilian Uleer）本周开发了一个“压力指数”，作为“美国即将到来的言论或战略调整的代理指标”。

Speculating on when the next "TACO moment" will arrive has become the latest obsession on Wall Street. Maximilian Uleer, the head of cross-asset strategy at Deutsche Bank, developed a "pressure index" this week as an indicator of "the upcoming statements or strategic adjustments in the United States".

该指数考量了特朗普支持率的一个月变化、一年期通胀预期、华尔街标普500指数的表现以及美国国债收益率。

This index takes into account the one-month change in Trump's approval rating, one-year inflation expectations, the performance of the S&P 500 index on Wall Street, and the yield of US Treasury bonds.

乌勒表示：“如果该指数上升，美国政府进行战略调整的可能性就更大。如果四个痛苦点都受到冲击，调整的动机就非常高。”该指数目前接近特朗普重新入主白宫以来的最高水平。

Uler said, "If this index rises, the likelihood of the US government making strategic adjustments will be greater. If all four pain points are affected, the motivation for adjustment will be extremely high." The index is currently close to its highest level since Trump returned to the White House.

东方汇理投资研究所（Amundi Investment Institute）负责人莫妮卡·德芬德（Monica Defend）表示，特朗普在第二任期内对美国国债收益率变得“敏感得多”。“一旦（10年期）国债收益接近4.5%，政府就会非常紧张，通常那时他们就会采取行动。作为投资者，你需要预判这一点。”

Monica Defend, the head of Amundi Investment Institute, said that during Trump's second term, he became "much more sensitive" to US Treasury bond yields. "Once the (10-year) Treasury yield approaches 4.5%, the government becomes very nervous and usually takes action at that point. As an investor, you need to anticipate this."

其他投资者则只是在等待混乱过去，他们太担心被特朗普在Truth Social上的下一条帖子打个措手不及。一位北美对冲基金的首席投资官表示：“我们都在做同样的事情——什么都不做。你不能做空石油，因为它可能轻易飙升至150美元。或者战争也可能在五分钟内结束。”

Other investors are merely waiting for the chaos to pass. They are too worried about being caught off guard by Trump's next post on Truth Social. A chief investment officer of a North American hedge fund said: "We are all doing the same thing - doing nothing. You can't short oil because it could easily soar to $150. Or a war could end in five minutes."