当前，中东战事持续扰乱全球能源供应体系。多名美国专家分析认为，美国国内油价与国际市场高度接轨，加上供应链冲击传导效应，大幅上行伴随剧烈波动的国际油价将让美国面临更大的通胀和经济衰退压力。近日，多家机构上调美国经济陷入衰退的概率。

Currently, the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East continue to disrupt the global energy supply system. Several American experts have analyzed that the domestic oil prices in the United States are highly correlated with international markets, and combined with the transmission effect of supply chain disruptions, the sharp increase accompanied by intense fluctuations in international oil prices will place the United States under greater pressure of inflation and economic recession. Recently, several institutions have raised the probability of the United States entering a recession.

美国消费者新闻与商业频道3月25日报道，穆迪分析公司预测美国经济在未来12个月陷入衰退的概率已经升至48.6%，高盛集团认为衰退概率将达到30%;美国威尔明顿信托公司和安永—博智隆公司则分别预计衰退概率为45%和40%。

On March 25th, the CNN Business channel of the United States reported that Moody's Analytics predicted that the probability of the US economy entering a recession in the next 12 months has risen to 48.6%, while Goldman Sachs Group believes the probability will reach 30%. The Wilmington Trust Company of the United States and Ernst & Young-Borozon Company respectively predicted that the probability of a recession would be 45% and 40%.

穆迪分析公司首席经济学家马克·赞迪表示，令人担忧的是，衰退风险“高到令人不适且还在继续升高”，经济衰退已是一个真实威胁。如果当前的高油价持续到5月下旬至二季度末，“美国经济将陷入衰退”。

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, said that it is worrying that the risk of recession is "uncomfortably high and still rising", and that a recession is now a real threat. If the current high oil prices persist until late May to the end of the second quarter, "the US economy will fall into a recession".

美国花旗集团分析师认为，近期受中东局势影响，全球能源运输受阻，布伦特原油期货价格数天内可能升至每桶120美元。如果能源基础设施遭受大范围攻击、霍尔木兹海峡长时间处于关闭状态，布伦特原油期货价格在今年二季度和三季度的均价可能达到每桶130美元。

Analysts from Citigroup in the United States believe that due to the recent situation in the Middle East, global energy transportation has been disrupted. The price of Brent crude oil futures may rise to $120 per barrel within a few days. If energy infrastructure is subject to widespread attacks and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for a long time, the average price of Brent crude oil futures in the second and third quarters of this year may reach $130 per barrel.

最新数据显示，美国全国汽油平均价格显著上涨至每加仑(1美制加仑约合3.785升)约3.977美元。全国柴油平均价格约为每加仑5.345美元，处于近年来较高水平。其中，加利福尼亚州柴油平均价格3月24日已升至每加仑7.018美元。

The latest data shows that the average price of gasoline across the United States has risen significantly to approximately $3.977 per gallon (1 US gallon is approximately 3.785 liters). The average price of diesel nationwide is about $5.345 per gallon, which is at a relatively high level in recent years. Among them, the average price of diesel in California reached $7.018 per gallon on March 24th.

在宾夕法尼亚州拉克瓦纳县，当地居民凯文·洛萨维奇抱怨说：“油价涨得太厉害了。现在什么东西都贵，很多人负担不起基本生活开销。”按照美国斯坦福经济政策研究所的最新测算，受中东战事影响，美国家庭今年燃油支出平均将增加740美元。

In Lackawanna County, Pennsylvania, local resident Kevin Losavic complained: "The oil prices have gone up too much. Everything is expensive now and many people can't afford their basic living expenses." According to the latest calculation by the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research in the United States, due to the war in the Middle East, American families will spend an average of $740 more on fuel this year.

美国媒体分析认为，在中东战事发生前，美国通胀形势已经不容乐观。美国商务部最新发布的个人消费支出报告表明，美国今年1月物价同比年化上涨2.8%。剔除波动较大的食品和能源类别后，核心通胀率达3.1%，创近两年新高。

American media analysis suggests that before the war in the Middle East broke out, the inflation situation in the United States was already not optimistic. The latest personal consumption expenditure report released by the US Department of Commerce indicates that in January this year, the US prices rose by 2.8% year-on-year. After excluding the volatile food and energy categories, the core inflation rate reached 3.1%, reaching a new high in the past two years.

据美国劳工部最新数据，美国2月生产者价格指数环比上涨0.7%，剔除食品和能源价格的核心生产者价格指数环比上涨0.5%，同比上涨3.4%，创2025年2月以来最大同比涨幅，超出市场预期。

According to the latest data from the US Department of Labor, the producer price index in the US rose by 0.7% month-on-month in February. The core producer price index, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 0.5% month-on-month and by 3.4% year-on-year. This was the largest year-on-year increase since February 2025 and exceeded market expectations.

如今油价上涨，通胀带来的压力将继续传导至经济社会各个领域。通胀走高将进一步削弱消费者购买力，增加企业成本;经济增速降低，带来失业率走高。

Now that oil prices are rising, the pressure brought about by inflation will continue to spread to all aspects of the economy and society. The increase in inflation will further weaken consumers' purchasing power and increase enterprise costs; the slowdown in economic growth will lead to a rise in unemployment rates.

美国一家财富管理机构首席投资官托德·舍恩伯格认为，当前中东战事导致能源价格上涨尚未在数据中显现，金属等工业原材料价格和制造成本上涨带来的结构性通胀对货币政策的影响，很可能持续到今年三季度。

Todd Schonberg, the chief investment officer of a US wealth management institution, believes that the current war in the Middle East, which has led to an increase in energy prices, has not yet been reflected in the data. The structural inflation caused by the rise in prices of industrial raw materials and manufacturing costs is likely to continue to have an impact on monetary policy until the third quarter of this year.

市场预计，随着能源冲击效应逐步传导，美国通胀将进一步走高。惠誉评级美国经济研究主管奥卢·索诺拉表示，中东战事引发通胀上升，可能进一步挤压美国家庭收入，造成消费动力不足，危及美国经济增长前景。

The market predicts that as the impact of energy shocks gradually spreads, inflation in the United States will continue to rise. Olu Sonora, the head of economic research at Fitch Ratings, said that the war in the Middle East has led to an increase in inflation, which may further squeeze the income of American households and cause insufficient consumption drive, threatening the economic growth prospects of the United States.

路透社和益普索集团3月24日公布的一项民意调查显示，55%的受访者表示中东战事推高油价已波及自身财务状况;21%的人认为物价上涨严重挤压他们的钱包。受此影响，美国人对政府在生活成本管理方面的评价明显变差，只有25%的受访者认可政府对生活成本问题的处理。

A public opinion survey released by Reuters and Ipsos on March 24th showed that 55% of the respondents said that the war in the Middle East, which has pushed up oil prices, has affected their financial situation; 21% believed that rising prices have severely squeezed their wallets. As a result, Americans' eva luation of the government's handling of the issue of living costs has significantly deteriorated, with only 25% of the respondents approving of the government's handling of the issue.

面对更高的油价和不确定性，美国家庭和企业纷纷缩减开支。美国《华盛顿邮报》报道说，油价飙升与地缘政治冲突正让美国经济付出代价，“现在是一个脆弱时刻”。相关报道援引经济学家的话说，“通胀水平比我们所想象的更糟糕，美国经济无法承受每桶100美元以上的油价。”

In the face of higher oil prices and uncertainties, American families and businesses have been cutting back on spending. The Washington Post of the United States reported that the soaring oil prices and geopolitical conflicts are taking a toll on the US economy, "This is a fragile moment." The relevant report quoted an economist as saying, "The inflation level is worse than we imagined. The US economy cannot withstand oil prices above $100 per barrel."

据美国商务部数据，2025年年末美国联邦政府停摆严重拖累经济增长，联邦支出与投资大幅下滑16.7%，直接拉低去年四季度经济增速1.16个百分点。当前，美国经济结构问题带来的负面影响已经显现，劳动力市场风险尤为突出。

According to data from the US Department of Commerce, the federal government shutdown in 2025 severely hindered economic growth. Federal spending and investment dropped by 16.7%, directly reducing the economic growth rate in the fourth quarter of last year by 1.16 percentage points. Currently, the negative impact brought about by the problems in the US economic structure has already become apparent, and the risk in the labor market is particularly prominent.

经济学家曾预测美国今年2月就业岗位将有所增加，但事实是减少了9.2万个就业岗位。美国富国银行首席经济学家汤姆·波尔切利表示，在中东战事之前，美国就业形势已经不容乐观，“民众原本期待财政利好提振经济，现在油价居高不下，所谓利好将被完全抵消。”

Economists had predicted that the number of jobs in the United States would increase in February this year. However, the reality was that 92,000 jobs were lost. Tom Porcelli, the chief economist of Wells Fargo Bank in the United States, said that before the war in the Middle East, the employment situation in the United States was already not optimistic. "People originally expected fiscal benefits to boost the economy. Now, with oil prices remaining high, the so-called benefits will be completely offset."

英国《经济学人》杂志与舆观调查公司发布的最新民调结果显示，受中东战事影响，美国民众“突然更倾向于认为美国经济正在恶化”，有59%的人认为美国经济正在恶化，这是2022年10月以来该民调的最高值;30%的美国人预计一年后家庭财务状况将恶化;仅16%的人认为美国经济向好。

The latest poll released by The Economist magazine of the UK and YouGov shows that due to the war in the Middle East, American people "suddenly tend to believe that the US economy is deteriorating". 59% of Americans think the US economy is deteriorating, which is the highest value in this poll since October 2022; 30% of Americans expect their family financial situation to deteriorate in a year; only 16% think the US economy is improving.

高盛集团全球投资研究部门近日已将2026年美国经济增速预期下调0.2个百分点。

The global investment research department of Goldman Sachs has recently lowered its forecast for the US economic growth rate in 2026 by 0.2 percentage points.