印尼作为全球最大的动力煤出口国，自去年年底接连释放的产能管控信号，令全球动力煤供应担忧加剧。

Indonesia, as the world's largest exporter of thermal coal, has continuously released capacity control signals since the end of last year, which has further exacerbated global concerns over coal supply.

3月开始印尼部分国内电厂库存跌破安全线，部分出口资源被分流保内供，印尼煤出口货源偏紧局面进一步加剧。3月14日，印尼总统正式呼吁国内煤炭、毛棕榈油等大宗商品生产商及分销商，优先满足国内消费需求后再开展出口业务，释放出后续出口管控将持续加码的明确信号。

Starting from March, the inventory of some domestic power plants in Indonesia fell below the safety level, and some export resources were diverted to ensure domestic supply. The tight situation of coal export supply in Indonesia further intensified. On March 14th, the President of Indonesia officially called on domestic producers and distributors of commodities such as coal and crude palm oil to prioritize meeting domestic consumption demands before conducting export activities, sending out a clear signal that subsequent export control measures would continue to be tightened.

截至到3月中旬，印尼2026年煤炭生产工作计划和预算（RKAB）审批进度仅达不到4亿吨，审批进程缓慢叠加矿商长期产能规划受阻，市场对后续供应缺口的预期持续升温。

As of mid-March, the approval progress of Indonesia's 2026 coal production work plan and budget (RKAB) has only reached 400 million tons. The slow approval process, combined with the long-term capacity planning being hindered by mining companies, has led to a continuous increase in market expectations for the subsequent supply gap.

与此同时，中东地区持续紧张的地缘冲突，直接引发国际油价、海运运费剧烈波动，船舶运力紧张、燃油补给困难等问题接踵而至，受此影响，全球煤炭价格纷纷上行。

Meanwhile, the ongoing tense geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have directly led to significant fluctuations in international oil prices and shipping freight rates. Simultaneously, problems such as tight ship capacity and difficulties in fuel replenishment have emerged one after another. As a result, global coal prices have risen across the board.

　　除印尼与中东因素外，俄罗斯煤炭出口也陷入多重困境，进一步加剧了全球供应紧张格局。据俄罗斯分析机构近期发布的消息，受中东局势紧张叠加国内铁路物流瓶颈影响，俄罗斯煤炭出口新增大量不确定性，众多供应商暂停出口业务、持观望态度，尤其是远东港口船运业务基本处于停滞状态。

Apart from the factors in Indonesia and the Middle East, Russia's coal exports have also faced multiple difficulties, further exacerbating the global supply shortage situation. According to recent news released by a Russian analysis agency, due to the tense situation in the Middle East combined with domestic railway logistics bottlenecks, there has been a significant increase in uncertainties in Russia's coal exports. Many suppliers have suspended their export operations and are adopting a wait-and-see attitude, especially the shipping business at the Far Eastern ports has basically come to a standstill.

　　从需求端来看，东北亚作为全球核心煤炭进口区域，能源进口依赖度极高，韩国取消燃煤发电装机上限、中国台湾地区LNG库存偏低，叠加越南、孟加拉国潜在需求释放预期，区域采购意愿有所升温，高价接货支撑国际煤价保持坚挺。

From the demand side, Northeast Asia is a key global coal import region, with extremely high dependence on energy imports. South Korea has lifted the cap on coal-fired power generation capacity, and the LNG inventory in Taiwan region of China is low. Coupled with the expected release of potential demand in Vietnam and Bangladesh, the regional purchasing intention has warmed up. The high prices for receiving goods have supported the international coal price to remain firm.

　　但具体到中国市场来看，目前国内动力煤市场正处于传统消费淡季，而由于进口煤价格优势持续倒挂，进一步打击了进口煤终端和贸易商的采购积极性，仅少数电厂发布零星招标信息，且流标现象较为普遍，成交整体低迷。

However, when it comes to the Chinese market specifically, the current domestic thermal coal market is in a traditional off-season for consumption. Moreover, due to the persistent price disparity between imported coal and domestic coal, it has further dampened the purchasing enthusiasm of end-users and traders of imported coal. Only a few power plants have released sporadic bidding information, and the phenomenon of unsuccessful bids is quite common. The overall transaction volume is rather sluggish.

就拿进口煤终端用户采购最多的印尼3800大卡动力煤和澳大利亚5500大卡动力煤来说，自2月下旬以来，这两个品种的进口煤到岸价相较同热值内贸煤均出现倒挂现象，且倒挂程度逐步扩大。

Take the imported coal that is purchased the most by end-users, namely the 3800 kcal Indonesian thermal coal and the 5500 kcal Australian thermal coal, for example. Since the end of February, the landed prices of these two types of imported coal have shown a reverse trend compared to domestic coal of the same calorific value, and the degree of the reverse has gradually increased.

短期内，国际煤价受供应与地缘支撑将维持高位震荡。印尼能矿部明确目标在3月底前完成全部RKAB审批，未获配额矿企可按原计划25%临时生产至3月31日，逾期未批将无法继续生产，在此之前，印尼煤供应收紧将继续支撑印尼煤价易涨难跌。

In the short term, international coal prices will remain in a high-oscillating state due to supply and geopolitical factors. The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has set a target to complete all RKAB approvals by the end of March. Mines that have not been allocated quotas can temporarily produce at 25% of the original plan until March 31. Those that fail to obtain approval by the deadline will not be able to continue production. Before this, the tightening supply of Indonesian coal will continue to support the upward trend of Indonesian coal prices and prevent them from falling.

　　后续市场走势需重点聚焦三大核心因素：

一是中东地缘冲突演变，直接决定海运成本与全球能源风险溢价；

二是印尼RKAB配额审批及DMO政策落地执行情况，还有俄罗斯煤炭出口恢复情况，主导全球煤炭供应；

三是中国和印度需求表现。

The subsequent market trend needs to focus on three core factors:

First, the evolution of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East directly determines the cost of maritime transportation and the global energy risk premium;

The second item is the approval process of the Indonesian RKAB quotas and the implementation of the DMO policy, as well as the recovery of Russian coal exports, which dominates global coal supply.

The third point is the demand performance of China and India.