据《华尔街日报》5月16日报道，伊朗战争爆发后，霍尔木兹海峡实际上已陷入关闭状态，全球约20%的液化天然气供应就此中断。面对气源告急，亚洲多国纷纷重启此前已停用的燃煤电厂，欧洲部分国家也开始将煤电重新纳入应急选项。
According to a report by The Wall Street Journal on May 16th, after the outbreak of the war in Iran, the Strait of Hormuz has actually been closed, resulting in the interruption of approximately 20% of the global liquefied natural gas supply. Faced with an urgent shortage of gas sources, many Asian countries have restarted the coal-fired power plants that were previously shut down, and some European countries have also reintroduced coal power as an emergency option.
煤炭价格随之上扬。作为亚洲煤炭定价基准，澳大利亚纽卡斯尔港动力煤现货价格自战争爆发以来已上涨12%，3月中旬一度突破每吨140美元，创2024年底以来新高——尽管仍远低于2022年俄乌战争后创下的每吨440美元峰值。
The price of coal has risen accordingly. As the benchmark for coal pricing in Asia, the spot price of thermal coal at the Newcastle Port in Australia has increased by 12% since the outbreak of the war. In mid-March, it once exceeded $140 per ton, reaching a new high since the end of 2024 - although it is still far below the peak of $440 per ton set after the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war.
咨询公司WoodMackenzie热力煤市场负责人TonyKnutson表示：”煤炭现在是一种缓冲燃料，相对于LNG，它不受地缘政治影响，是一种对冲工具。只要冲突持续、海峡保持关闭，煤炭就会填补这个缺口。“
Tony Knutson, the head of thermal coal market at consulting firm WoodMackenzie, said: "Coal is now a buffer fuel. Compared to LNG, it is not affected by geopolitics and is a hedging tool. As long as the conflict persists and the strait remains closed, coal will fill this gap."
亚洲首当其冲，LNG进口跌至六年低点
Asia was the first to be affected, with LNG imports dropping to a six-year low.
霍尔木兹海峡对亚洲的意义，远超其他地区。
The Strait of Hormuz holds a much greater significance for Asia than for any other region.
据报道援引数据，通过霍尔木兹海峡出口的LNG中，约90%的目的地是亚洲。但自战争爆发以来，仅有三艘LNG船通过了这条关键水道。
According to the report, citing data, approximately 90% of the LNG exported through the Strait of Hormuz is destined for Asia. However, since the outbreak of the war, only three LNG ships have passed through this crucial waterway.
能源数据平台Vortexa的数据显示，亚洲LNG进口的日均移动均值上月跌至六年低点，回落至新冠疫情高峰期的水平。
Data from the energy data platform Vortexa shows that the average daily movement of LNG imports in Asia dropped to a six-year low last month, reverting to the level seen during the peak of the pandemic.
气源短缺的压力，直接推动了各国重返煤炭。
The shortage of gas supplies has directly led to countries' renewed reliance on coal.
多国重启煤电：从亚洲到欧洲
Many countries resume coal power generation: from Asia to Europe
亚洲：
Asia:
据报道，该地区通常约有一半电力来自LNG，且通常从卡塔尔进口约三分之一的LNG。面对供应中断，台电公司上月宣布重启两台此前已停用数月的燃煤发电机组。台电在声明中提到，战争对国际能源市场的冲击以及LNG供应持续面临的风险，是此次决策的直接原因。台电还表示，许多国家已采取紧急措施提升燃煤发电，以“减少天然气高价对电价和民众生活的冲击”。
It is reported that in this region, approximately half of the electricity is usually generated from LNG, and about one-third of the LNG is imported from Qatar. In the face of supply disruptions, Taiwan Power Company announced last month that it would restart two coal-fired power generation units that had been out of service for several months. In its statement, Taiwan Power Company mentioned that the impact of the war on the international energy market and the continuous risks to LNG supply were the direct reasons for this decision.
韩国的数据更为直观。据电力数据平台ElectricityMaps，韩国3月煤电发电量为12.1太瓦时，4月为10.7太瓦时，同比分别增长36%和39%。
The data from South Korea is more straightforward. According to the electricity data platform ElectricityMaps, South Korea's coal-fired power generation was 12.1 terawatt-hours in March and 10.7 terawatt-hours in April, representing year-on-year growth of 36% and 39% respectively.
印度则发布了紧急煤炭指令，强制要求使用进口煤的电厂在预计高温夏季来临前最大化产出。印度西部古吉拉特邦还在3月底要求塔塔电力重启一座进口煤电厂。泰国能源委员会也重启了一座电厂的两个燃煤机组，以抵消更高的天然气成本。
India has issued an emergency coal directive, mandating that power plants that use imported coal maximize their output before the expected arrival of the hot summer. In late March, the western state of Gujarat in India also requested Tata Power to restart an imported coal power plant. The Thai Energy Commission has also restarted two coal-fired units of a power plant to offset the higher cost of natural gas.
欧洲：
Europe:
欧洲的转变相对温和，但也出现了松动迹象。
The transformation in Europe has been relatively gentle, but there are also signs of loosening.
意大利能源部长3月表示，若中东冲突引发能源危机，目前处于备用状态的燃煤电厂可以重新启动。意大利是欧洲对天然气依赖程度最高的经济体之一，天然气约占其能源总供应的40%。该国还将燃煤电厂的退役时间推迟至2038年。
In March, the Italian Minister of Energy stated that if the conflict in the Middle East leads to an energy crisis, the coal-fired power plants currently in standby mode can be restarted. Italy is one of the economies in Europe that is most dependent on natural gas, with natural gas accounting for approximately 40% of its total energy supply. The country has also postponed the retirement of coal-fired power plants until 2038.
德国总理FriedrichMerz上月也提出，若出现供应短缺，可能推迟关闭部分煤电厂。
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz also proposed last month that if there is a shortage of supplies, the closure of some coal-fired power plants might be postponed.
煤炭需求下滑预期，或将推迟到来
The expected decline in coal demand may be postponed.
这一轮“煤炭回归”，让此前的能源转型叙事出现了裂缝。
This round of "coal re-emergence" has exposed cracks in the previous narrative of energy transition.
近年来，许多国家为应对气候变化持续压缩煤炭消费，部分国家转而以LNG替代煤炭发电。但煤炭燃烧产生的二氧化碳排放量约为天然气的两倍。
In recent years, many countries have been continuously reducing coal consumption in response to climate change. Some countries have thus switched to using LNG instead of coal for power generation. However, the carbon dioxide emissions from coal combustion are approximately twice those from natural gas.
TonyKnutson表示，与伊朗的冲突意味着，原本预计在本十年末出现的煤炭需求下滑，如今很可能被推迟。
Tony Knutson stated that the conflict with Iran means that the expected decline in coal demand that was anticipated to occur by the end of this decade is now likely to be postponed.
分析师目前预计，今年全球海运煤炭需求将出现增长，而非此前预期的持平。
Analysts currently predict that global maritime coal demand will increase this year, contrary to the previous expectation of a flat trend.
ArgusMediaLNG定价负责人MartinSenior指出：“对大多数国家来说，烧煤还是烧气，主要是价格问题。日本和韩国等国出于污染考量可以优先选择天然气，但如果气价持续高企，它们可能会继续烧煤。”
Martin Senior, the pricing manager of ArgusMediaLNG, stated: "For most countries, the choice between coal and gas mainly comes down to price. Countries like Japan and South Korea, considering pollution issues, can prioritize natural gas. However, if the gas price remains high, they may continue to use coal."
不过，分析师也提醒，这一趋势未必长久。一旦霍尔木兹海峡重新开放、LNG运输恢复，煤炭需求的反弹动力将随之减弱。
However, analysts also caution that this trend may not last long. Once the Strait of Hormuz reopens and LNG transportation resumes, the rebound momentum in coal demand will gradually weaken.