据CNBC 印度尼西亚频道5月20日发布的消息，昨日国际市场动力煤价格出现连续第三天上涨。路孚特(Refinitiv)数据显示， 周二(5月19日)的交易中，全球动力煤基准洲际交易所(ICE)纽卡斯尔煤炭期货次月交割合约价格收于139.4美元/吨，环比前一交易日上涨1.01%，且这一上涨延续了最近三天的连续上涨趋势，累计涨幅达4.5%。
According to the news released by CNBC's Indonesia channel on May 20th, the international market price of thermal coal rose for the third consecutive day yesterday. Data from Refinitiv shows that in the trading on Tuesday (May 19th), the price of the next-month delivery contract of the global thermal coal benchmark Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Newcastle Coal Futures settled at $139.4 per ton, up 1.01% compared to the previous trading day. This increase continued the consecutive upward trend of the past three days, with a cumulative increase of 4.5%.
目前这一煤炭价格水平也是自2026年3月31日以来超过1个半月的最高水平。
Currently, this coal price level is also the highest point since March 31, 2026, exceeding it by more than one and a half months.
煤炭价格的上涨，一定程度上受到印度方面消息的支持。印度预计钢铁产能将大幅扩张，计划在未来几十年推动炼焦煤进口累计接近60亿吨。
The increase in coal prices is, to some extent, supported by information from India. India expects a significant expansion in steel production capacity and plans to increase coking coal imports by nearly 6 billion tons over the next few decades.
随着印度目标在2030年达到每年3亿吨的粗钢产能，大约64%的3.82亿吨正在开发的产能，将依赖于高能耗的高炉( blast furnace) 技术。
As India aims to achieve an annual crude steel production capacity of 300 million tons by 2030, approximately 64% of the 382 million tons of planned production capacity will rely on high-energy-consuming blast furnace technology.
由于每吨钢需要平均770公斤的冶金煤，仅计划的高炉产能就需要每年增加1.4亿吨的煤炭，几乎将当前的供应水平翻上一番。
Since each ton of steel requires an average of 770 kilograms of metallurgical coal, the planned blast furnace capacity alone will require an annual increase of 140 million tons of coal, almost doubling the current supply level.
进口依赖和预测
Import dependence and forecasting
目前，印度钢铁行业用煤90%依赖进口，因为国内的炼焦煤含有大量的灰分和硫，不适合炼钢。
At present, 90% of the coal used in the Indian steel industry is imported. This is because the coking coal produced domestically contains a high amount of ash and sulfur, which is not suitable for steelmaking.
根据标普全球(S&P Global)的估计，2025年，印度冶金用煤进口量将超过8310万吨，比2016年增长9.4%。预计到2035年达到1.49亿吨，而2026年的进口量预计约为9400万吨。
According to S&P Global's estimation, in 2025, India's imported coal for metallurgical purposes will exceed 83.1 million tons, representing a 9.4% increase compared to 2016. It is projected to reach 149 million tons by 2035, and the import volume in 2026 is expected to be approximately 94 million tons.
由于印度《国家钢铁政策》下钢铁产业的快速扩张，印度焦煤的进口预计将从2025财年的8700万吨，急剧增加到2030年的1.35亿吨。
Due to the rapid expansion of the steel industry under India's "National Steel Policy", India's imports of coking coal are expected to increase sharply from 87 million tons in the fiscal year 2025 to 135 million tons in the year 2030.