3月27日，印尼能源与矿产资源部、矿产与煤炭总局局长特里·维纳诺（Tri Winarno）透露，2026财年煤炭年度生产计划（RKAB）已批准总量达5.8亿吨，剩余审批预计短期内完成。至此，印尼RKAB审批进度趋于明朗，政府或将有限度地给予超出该数量的生产宽松政策。
On March 27th, Tri Winarno, the director of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia and the Bureau of Mines and Coal, disclosed that the annual coal production plan (RKAB) for the fiscal year 2026 has been approved with a total volume of 580 million tons. The remaining approvals are expected to be completed within a short period. Thus, the approval progress of the Indonesian RKAB has become clearer, and the government may offer limited production relaxation policies beyond this quantity.
不过，印尼煤炭行业专业人士对产能能否快速恢复存疑。过去四个月，矿业从业者始终面临生产额度不确定性，部分企业甚至因此缩减乃至停止运营。煤炭行业专家指出，生产放缓后恢复正常需一定周期，涉及矿山道路整修、作业区排水、弃土场整理、采矿设备维护等一系列工作。
However, professionals in the Indonesian coal industry are skeptical about whether production capacity can be restored quickly. Over the past four months, miners have constantly faced uncertainty regarding production quotas. Some enterprises even reduced or halted operations due to this. Coal industry experts point out that it takes a certain period for production to return to normal after a slowdown, involving a series of tasks such as road repairs in mines, drainage in operation areas, clearing of waste dumps, and maintenance of mining equipment.
除持续至2025年底的RKAB审批延迟问题外，印尼煤炭行业还面临多重困扰。
Apart from the ongoing delay in the RKAB approval process that will last until the end of 2025, the Indonesian coal industry is also facing multiple challenges.
受国际能源波动影响，印尼燃油价格大幅上涨。目前印尼工业柴油价格超21000印尼盾/升，若原油价格继续攀升，或突破25000印尼盾/升。尽管近期中东局势有缓和迹象，但不确定性仍存，燃油供应稳定性堪忧。外媒报道称，多位官员3月下旬反复强调全国燃油储备维持在21-28天，符合最低标准，供应“稳定且充足”，但该储备水平远低于国际能源署推荐的90天标准，被专家视为“脆弱”。
Due to the fluctuations in international energy prices, the fuel prices in Indonesia have risen significantly. Currently, the price of industrial diesel in Indonesia exceeds 21,000 Indonesian rupiah per liter. If the price of crude oil continues to rise, it may exceed 25,000 Indonesian rupiah per liter. Although there are signs of easing in the situation in the Middle East recently, uncertainties still exist, and the stability of fuel supply is questionable. Foreign media reported that several officials repeatedly emphasized in late March that the national fuel reserves would maintain a level of 21-28 days, which is in line with the minimum standard, and the supply would be "stable and sufficient". However, this reserve level is far lower than the 90-day standard recommended by the International Energy Agency, and is regarded as "vulnerable" by experts.
据外媒报道，为应对油价飙升和供应中断风险，印尼政府宣布4月1日起限制每辆汽车每日燃油购买量为50升，且国内部分燃料供应商供应减少，这无疑将影响高度依赖燃油的采矿活动。
According to foreign media reports, in response to the soaring oil prices and the risk of supply disruptions, the Indonesian government has announced that starting from April 1st, the daily fuel purchase limit for each vehicle will be 50 liters. Moreover, some domestic fuel suppliers have reduced their supply, which undoubtedly will have an impact on mining activities that are highly dependent on fuel.
更严峻的是，印尼总统普拉博沃·苏比安托3月30日在日本访问期间宣布，今年将推进B50生物柴油计划（柴油中掺混50%棕榈油生物柴油）。该计划曾因技术与资金问题于1月搁置，如今因国际油价上涨重启。
What is more worrying is that Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto announced during his visit to Japan on March 30 that this year the B50 biodiesel program (diesel mixed with 50% palm oil biodiesel) will be further advanced. This program was previously put on hold in January due to technical and financial issues, but has now resumed due to the increase in international oil prices.
对高度依赖柴油的重型采矿设备而言，B50政策将显著推高生产成本。印尼煤炭矿业协会（APBI）明确反对该政策，警告称B40阶段已使企业承担全部新增成本，B50将进一步加重运营负担。
For heavy mining equipment that heavily relies on diesel, the B50 policy will significantly increase production costs. The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) has explicitly opposed this policy, warning that the B40 stage has already made enterprises bear all the additional costs, and the B50 policy will further increase the operational burden.
同时，全球尚无主流重型设备制造商为B10以上生物柴油提供质保，矿业设备故障频发、保养频率上升等问题将直接削弱煤炭行业竞争力。在燃油价格大幅上涨、供应稳定性受质疑的背景下，B50计划无疑给印尼煤炭开采企业带来新的成本压力。
Meanwhile, there are no major global heavy equipment manufacturers providing warranties for biodiesel with a grade above B10. The frequent breakdowns of mining equipment and the increased maintenance frequency will directly undermine the competitiveness of the coal industry. Against the backdrop of a significant increase in fuel prices and doubts about supply stability, the B50 plan undoubtedly brings new cost pressures to Indonesian coal mining enterprises.
监管层面的风暴也加剧了行业动荡，且打击对象直指行业核心人物。3月28日，印尼总检察长办公室宣布逮捕煤炭大亨Samin Tan。Tan是印尼矿业界极具影响力的人物，2011年被《福布斯》列为印尼最富有的人之一，曾高调尝试收购Berau Coal Energy的前母公司Asia Resource Minerals。此案是印尼扩大打击非法资源开采行动中最引人注目的举措之一，释放出更严厉执法的信号，引发市场对监管趋严及潜在合规风险的担忧。
The regulatory turmoil has also exacerbated the industry's instability, and the targets of the crackdown are directly aimed at the industry's key figures. On March 28th, the Indonesian Attorney General's Office announced the arrest of coal magnate Samin Tan. Tan is a highly influential figure in the Indonesian mining industry. In 2011, he was ranked as one of the richest people in Indonesia by Forbes and had publicly attempted to acquire the former parent company of Berau Coal Energy, Asia Resource Minerals. This case is one of the most notable measures in Indonesia's expanded crackdown on illegal resource extraction, sending out a signal of stricter law enforcement and raising concerns among the market about tightened regulation and potential compliance risks.
此外，印尼煤炭行业还面临国内生产义务（DMO）的不确定性，以及煤炭出口税乃至暴利税的潜在压力。
In addition, the Indonesian coal industry is also confronted with the uncertainty of domestic production obligations (DMO), as well as potential pressures from coal export taxes and even excessive profit taxes.
综合来看，尽管RKAB审批推进为生产带来曙光，但产能恢复缓慢、燃油成本飙升、生物柴油政策冲击及监管环境收紧，共同构成了印尼煤炭行业的复杂困局。
Overall, although the approval process by RKAB has brought hope for production, the slow recovery of production capacity, the soaring fuel costs, the impact of bio-diesel policies, and the tightened regulatory environment have collectively created a complex predicament for the Indonesian coal industry.