近日，美国银行分析师表示，受中东冲突重塑全球供应链、化工产品价格上行等因素带动，拉美石化企业在今年二季度迎来多年难得的高利润行情。但受多重因素制约，该盈利局面难以长期持续。

Recently, analysts from US banks stated that due to factors such as the reshaping of global supply chains by the conflicts in the Middle East and the upward trend in chemical product prices, Latin American petrochemical enterprises witnessed a rare period of high profits in the second quarter of this year. However, constrained by multiple factors, this profit situation is unlikely to persist in the long term.

美银发布的拉美石化行业月度监测报告追踪当地头部企业利润价差数据，称4月拉美石化行业盈利表现格外强劲，盈利增速较3月明显加快。此番利润改善一方面得益于树脂成品价格走高，另一方面原料端走势趋于平稳。3月石脑油价格暴涨约50%，严重压制利润空间;而4月石脑油价格仅上涨11%，乙烷价格更是下跌13%，成本压力大幅缓解。

The monthly monitoring report on the Latin American petrochemical industry released by Bank of America tracks the profit margin data of the leading local enterprises. It states that the profit performance of the Latin American petrochemical industry in April was exceptionally strong, with the profit growth rate significantly accelerating compared to March. This profit improvement was partly due to the increase in the prices of resin products, and partly because the trend of raw material prices became more stable. In March, the price of naphtha soared by approximately 50%, severely restricting the profit margin; while in April, the price of naphtha only rose by 11%, and the price of ethane even dropped by 13%, significantly reducing the cost pressure.

目前，拉美塑料利润普遍上行。美银表示，4月各类塑料产品价格上行，多个产品生产利润首次突破5年均值，其中聚乙烯利润涨幅最为突出，亚洲石脑油制聚丙烯、美国乙烷制聚氯乙烯、一体化聚对苯二甲酸乙二酯(PET)产业链及主流化工链条利润均同步走高。当前聚乙烯生产利润扩张幅度已接近疫情时期水平。4月依托石脑油、乙烷、丙烷等原料生产的聚乙烯平均利润达1000美元/吨，逼近2021年上半年水平。

Currently, the profits of plastics in Latin America are generally on the rise. Bank of America stated that in April, the prices of various plastic products rose, and the production profits of several products exceeded the 5-year average for the first time. Among them, the profit of polyethylene increased the most. The profits of Asian naphtha-based polypropylene production, American ethane-based polyvinyl chloride production, the integrated polyethylene terephthalate (PET) industrial chain, and the mainstream chemical chain all rose simultaneously. Currently, the expansion of polyethylene production profits has approached the level during the pandemic period. In April, the average profit of polyethylene produced from naphtha, ethane, and propane reached $1,000 per ton, approaching the level in the first half of 2021.

墨西哥一体化聚酯及聚丙烯生产商阿尔佩克(Alpek)相关盈利指标同样大幅走高。拉美聚丙烯市场行情更为复杂：4月美国丙烯制聚丙烯利润环比大涨35%，达到595美元/吨，终结了长达39个月的横盘低迷走势。

The relevant profit indicators of Alpek, a Mexican integrated polyester and polypropylene producer, also saw a significant increase. The situation in the Latin American polypropylene market is more complex: In April, the profit from converting propylene into polypropylene in the United States rose by 35% month-on-month to 595 US dollars per ton, ending a 39-month period of sideways stagnation.

美银指出，当前拉美市场的核心疑问在于诸如4月的盈利涨幅还能够维持多久。中东局势若再度升级，将彻底改写行业预期;同时亚洲货源涌入欧洲市场、高成本环境下终端需求萎缩风险显现，本轮上涨行情的覆盖范围正逐步收窄。

Bank of America points out that the core concern in the current Latin American market lies in how long the profit growth in April can be sustained. If the situation in the Middle East escalates again, it will completely change the industry expectations. At the same time, the influx of Asian supplies into the European market and the risk of shrinking demand in the high-cost environment are emerging, and the coverage of this round of rising trend is gradually narrowing.

此次拉美本土化工品涨价主要由出口订单拉动，欧洲及拉美地区跨国采购商纷纷转向美洲采购货源，以此弥补中东供应链中断带来的短期供货缺口。4月拉美石化企业装置基本满负荷生产，受计划内检修影响，整体开工率约为设计产能的87%;预计5月开工率依旧维持高位，但受前期设备维护投入不足制约，开工率难以突破90%，不足以满足欧洲市场进一步增长的需求。

The recent increase in local chemical product prices in Latin America was mainly driven by export orders. Multinational purchasers from Europe and Latin America have shifted their sourcing to the Americas to fill the short-term supply gap caused by the disruption of the supply chain in the Middle East. In April, the production capacity of Latin American petrochemical enterprises was basically at full capacity. Due to planned maintenance, the overall operating rate was approximately 87% of the designed capacity. It is expected that the operating rate in May will remain at a high level, but due to insufficient investment in equipment maintenance in the previous period, the operating rate is unlikely to exceed 90%, which is insufficient to meet the further growth demand of the European market.

在苯乙烯和发泡聚苯乙烯产业链方面，4月美国地区平均利润达582美元/吨，环比上涨7%。但苯、苯乙烯等原料价格波动剧烈，下游加工企业成本转嫁阻力较大，部分下游客户签订季度长协定价，难以同步上调产品售价，制约拉美市场盈利。

In the styrene and expanded polystyrene industry chain, the average profit in the US region reached 582 US dollars per ton in April, up by 7% compared with the previous month. However, the prices of raw materials such as benzene and styrene fluctuated greatly, and the cost transmission resistance for downstream processing enterprises was relatively high. Some downstream customers signed quarterly long-term contract pricing agreements, making it difficult to simultaneously increase product prices, which constrained the profit in the Latin American market.

美银指出，本轮地缘危机的持续时长直接影响拉美石化市场的后期走势。5月市场走势大概率维持区间震荡，4月最后一周已出现利润收窄迹象，一旦中东局势再度激化，市场格局将彻底生变;叠加亚洲货源冲击主流消费市场、高价原料压制终端需求等因素，本轮拉美市场化工品涨价红利或将逐步消退。

Bank of America points out that the duration of this round of geopolitical crisis directly affects the future trend of the petrochemical market in Latin America. The market trend in May is likely to remain in a range-bound state. By the end of April, there were signs of profit contraction. If the situation in the Middle East intensifies again, the market pattern will completely change. Coupled with factors such as the impact of Asian supply on the mainstream consumer market and the suppression of terminal demand by high-priced raw materials, the price increase benefits of the chemical products in the Latin American market may gradually fade away.

不过，该机构也指出，若各方无法达成永久停火协议、冲突再度爆发，现有行业市场预判则将全部失效。

However, the agency also pointed out that if the parties fail to reach a permanent ceasefire agreement and the conflict breaks out again, all the current industry market predictions will become invalid.