据路透社(REUTERS )3月23日发布的消息，国际能源署署长法提赫·比罗尔(Fatih Birol)正试图唤醒世界摆脱自满情绪。

According to a report released by Reuters on March 23rd, Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, is attempting to awaken the world from its complacency.

周一在堪培拉访问期间，这位国际能源署(IEA)负责人重申了他上周对《金融时报》(Financial Times)发表的令人警醒的评论，即美国和以色列对伊朗的战争构成了“历史上”对全球能源安全的最大威胁。然而，各国政府对他的警钟所做出的回应却加剧了这场危机。

During his visit to Canberra on Monday, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) reiterated his alarming comments made to the Financial Times last week, stating that the war between the United States and Israel against Iran represents "the greatest threat to global energy security in history". However, the responses from various governments to his warning have exacerbated this crisis.

比罗尔拥有充分的数据来支持他的论断。中东的冲突使全球市场每天减少了1100万桶石油供应，这一数量是20世纪70年代的每一次供应冲击的两倍。与此同时，减少1400亿立方米天然气几乎达到俄乌战争的两倍。

Biroir has ample data to support his assertion. The conflicts in the Middle East have reduced the global oil supply by 11 million barrels per day each day, a figure that is twice that of any supply shock in the 1970s. At the same time, the reduction of 140 billion cubic meters of natural gas is almost twice that of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.

此外，修复或重建该地区受损的管道和生产设施还需要时间。卡塔尔能源公司(QatarEnergy)首席执行官兼能源事务国务部长萨阿德·卡阿比(Saad al-Kaabi)周四在接受路透社采访时表示，上周伊朗对卡塔尔液化天然气(LNG)生产造成的17%损失可能需要五年时间才能恢复。

Furthermore, it will take time to repair or rebuild the damaged pipelines and production facilities in the region. Saad al-Kaabi, the CEO of QatarEnergy and the Minister of State for Energy Affairs, said in an interview with Reuters on Thursday that the 17% loss in Qatar's liquefied natural gas (LNG) production caused by Iran last week may take five years to recover.

能做的也只有这么多。新的袭击和威胁发生和已导致油价上涨，抵消了全球石油战略储备五分之一近期释放带来的任何缓解。

All that can be done is limited to this. New attacks and threats have occurred and have led to an increase in oil prices, offsetting any relief brought about by the recent release of one-fifth of the global strategic oil reserves.

比罗尔表示，国际能源署正在与墨西哥、加拿大等国商讨推迟炼油厂维护并增加产量。此外，该机构于周五发布了一项10点计划，旨在减少需求，包括居家办公、降低驾驶速度和避免乘坐飞机。如果霍尔木兹海峡持续关闭，这些措施也只是杯水车薪。

Birrell stated that the International Energy Agency is discussing with countries such as Mexico and Canada the postponement of refinery maintenance and the increase in production. Additionally, the agency released a 10-point plan on Friday aimed at reducing demand, including working from home, driving at lower speeds, and avoiding air travel. However, these measures would only be a drop in the bucket if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

据《悉尼先驱晨报》(Sydney Morning Herald)和《澳大利亚金融评论报》(AFR)援引消息人士报道，澳大利亚政府正在考虑另一项计划：利用其庞大的液化天然气出口，说服贸易伙伴保持石油进口。

According to reports from the Sydney Morning Herald and the Australian Financial Review citing sources, the Australian government is considering another plan: leveraging its substantial liquefied natural gas exports to persuade trading partners to maintain oil imports.

澳大利亚是液化天然气和煤炭出口的全球前三的国家，却进口占其使用量多达90%的石油，其石油储备量约为国际能源署要求的90天储备量的三分之一。

Australia is one of the top three countries in the world for liquefied natural gas and coal exports, but imports up to 90% of its oil usage. Its oil reserves are about one-third of the 90 day reserve required by the International Energy Agency.

要提醒中国、马来西亚等煤炭及化肥等短缺商品供应商，这些国家依赖澳大利亚能源产品，若保持石油进口，也将有助于保持煤炭等商品供应链畅通。像印尼这样的全球最大的煤炭出口国，也可能效仿此举。

We need to remind suppliers of scarce commodities such as coal and fertilizers in countries like China and Malaysia that they rely on Australian energy products. If they maintain oil imports, it will also help to keep the supply chain of coal and other commodities smooth. Indonesia, the world's largest coal exporting country, may also follow suit.

问题是，这种策略存在更广泛的弊端。随着各国进行谈判，它会加剧保护主义和供应的更大不确定性。它还会扩大那些拥有境内化石燃料可供交换的国家与没有的国家之间的差距。而且，它几乎肯定会导致所有方面的价格上涨。

The problem is that this strategy has broader drawbacks. As countries negotiate, it will exacerbate protectionism and greater uncertainty in supply. It will also widen the gap between countries that have domestically available fossil fuels for exchange and those that do not. Moreover, it will almost certainly lead to price increases in all aspects.