自战争爆发以来，石油和天然气价格飙升。截至3月6日，布伦特原油期货上涨了27%，而荷兰TTF，作为欧洲天然气基准指数，上涨近70%。此外，一些石油产品市场受到了特别大的冲击，包括柴油和航空燃油市场。Oil and natural gas prices have spiked since the start of hostilities. Brent crude futures climbed by 27% through 6 March, and Dutch TTF, the European benchmark for natural gas, was up by nearly 70%. Moreover, some markets for oil products have been particularly affected, including those for diesel and jet fuel.

自2025年初以来，全球石油市场一直出现显著的顺差。在2月28日开始的军事行动之前，全球石油供应预计将在2026年远超需求。然而，长期的供应中断可能会使市场陷入逆差。

The global oil market has been in significant surplus since the start of 2025. Ahead of the military actions that began on 28 February, global oil supply was also expected to far exceed demand in 2026. However, prolonged supply disruptions could flip the market into a deficit.

2025年全球观察到的石油库存超过82亿桶，为自2021年以来的最高水平。这些股票现在为抵御供应中断提供了有利的缓冲。Global observed oil inventories rose to more than 8.2 billion barrels in 2025, their highest level since 2021. These stocks now provide a welcome cushion against supply disruptions.  

值得注意的是，IEA成员国持有超过12亿桶公共应急石油库存。这些以及另外6亿份政府债务持有的工业股票，可以在需要时为市场带来额外供应。Notably, IEA Member countries hold over 1.2 billion barrels of public emergency oil stocks. These, and a further 600 million of industry stocks held under government obligation, can bring additional supply to market if needed.

自2022年2月俄罗斯入侵乌克兰引发重大冲击后，天然气市场已逐步实现平衡。预计在本十年末前，一波新的液化天然气产能将改变市场格局。但2026年前两个月市场依然紧张，北半球供暖季结束后储能耗尽，预计未来几个月对LNG的需求将增加。Natural gas markets have gradually rebalanced following the major shock that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. A wave of new LNG capacity between now and the end of this decade is expected to transform market dynamics. But markets remained tight in the first two months of 2026, and depleted storage coming out of the heating season in the Northern Hemisphere is set to increase the call on LNG in the months ahead.

卡塔尔拉斯拉凡工厂的长期产能损失可能会显著加剧市场紧张。3月2日，工厂遭袭后，生产被迫停产。2025年，拉斯拉凡生产了1120亿立方米LNG，以及每天30万桶液化石油气（LPG）和18万桶凝析油，成为世界上最大的LNG设施，远远领先。An extended loss of output from the Ras Laffan facility in Qatar could significantly exacerbate this market tightness. Production was shut down following an attack on the facilities on 2 March. In 2025, Ras Laffan produced 112 billion cubic metres (bcm) of LNG, as well as 300 000 barrels per day of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and 180 000 barrels per day of condensate, making it the largest LNG facility in the world by some distance.

海湾地区是石油产品出口到全球市场的重要来源，尤其是柴油和喷气燃料等中间馏分产品。全球范围内，中馏分市场相较于其他产品相对紧张，持续进口欧洲市场是主要驱动力。因此，炼油厂似乎几乎没有灵活性进一步提高柴油和喷气燃料的产出率以应对持续供应损失。The Gulf region is a key source of exports of oil products to global markets, notably for middle distillates such as diesel and jet fuel. Globally, markets for middle distillates have been relatively tight compared with those for other products, with sustained imports into European markets a key driver. As such, there appears to be little flexibility for refineries to increase the yield of diesel and jet fuel further to compensate in the event of sustained supply losses.