据中国气象局消息，目前，太平洋上持续增强的厄尔尼诺气候现象，或将成为150年来最强的一次。预计本次事件至少持续到明年春季。

According to the China Meteorological Administration, currently, the continuously intensifying El Niño climate phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean may become the strongest one in 150 years. It is predicted that this event will last at least until the spring of next year.

印尼气象、气候和地球物理局(BMKG)局长特库·费萨尔·法塔尼表示，当前厄尔尼诺已达到强等级，且仍有可能升级为非常强，存在引发印尼多个地区出现更干燥、更长期干旱的风险。本轮厄尔尼诺将持续至2027年5月左右。

The director of the Indonesian Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), Tekuk Faisal Fatani, stated that the current El Niño has reached a strong level and there is still a possibility of it escalating to an extremely strong level, posing a risk of causing more dry and prolonged droughts in several regions of Indonesia. This round of El Niño will last until around May 2027.

印尼正面临厄尔尼诺与干旱叠加的挑战。

Indonesia is currently facing the challenge of the combination of El Niño and drought.

印尼煤炭行业高度依赖河流运输，尤其是在加里曼丹和苏门答腊地区，当地许多煤矿位于内陆，依赖驳船将煤炭运至沿海装船设施。

The Indonesian coal industry is highly dependent on river transportation. Especially in the regions of Kalimantan and Sumatra, many coal mines are located in the inland areas and rely on barges to transport the coal to coastal loading facilities.

印尼2015年厄尔尼诺和2019年旱季均出现过产区河运受阻情况，河流水位走低时，矿企将降低驳船载货量防止搁浅，进而推高运输成本、缩减单次运量、拉长装船周期并造成货物转运延误。即便全年总产量不变，也会收紧短期煤炭现货供给。

In 2015 during the El Niño phenomenon and in the 2019 dry season, there were instances of river transportation disruptions in the production areas. When the river water levels dropped, mining companies would reduce the cargo capacity of the barges to prevent grounding, which in turn would increase transportation costs, reduce the single shipment volume, prolong the loading cycle and cause delays in the transfer of goods. Even if the total annual output remained unchanged, it would tighten the short-term supply of coal spot markets.

据印度尼西亚国家统计局(BPS)2026年8月4日发布的统计数据显示，2026年6月份，印尼煤炭出口同比大幅增长，当月出口量为4007.14万吨，同比增长14.7%，但环比回落1.0%。其中，焦煤出口162.92万吨，同比减少16.8%，环比下降15.9%;其它烟煤出口265.55万吨，同比下降15.3%，环比增长32.0%;其它煤出口22460.02万吨，同比增长8.2%，环比下降1.9%;褐煤出口1117.95万吨，同比增长57.2%，环比下降2.5%。

According to the statistical data released by the Indonesian National Statistics Agency (BPS) on August 4, 2026, in June 2026, Indonesia's coal exports saw a significant year-on-year increase. The export volume for that month was 4007.14 million tons, up by 14.7% compared to the previous year, but down by 1.0% compared to the previous month. Among them, coking coal exports were 162.92 million tons, down by 16.8% year-on-year and down by 15.9% month-on-month; other bituminous coal exports were 265.55 million tons, down by 15.3% year-on-year and up by 32.0% month-on-month; other coal exports were 22460.02 million tons, up by 8.2% year-on-year and down by 1.9% month-on-month; lignite exports were 1117.95 million tons, up by 57.2% year-on-year and down by 2.5% month-on-month.

澎湃新闻：厄尔尼诺增强“放大”印尼干旱，全球煤炭供应链面临“烤”验

The Paper: El Niño intensifies and "amplifies" the drought in Indonesia, posing a "test" for the global coal supply chain

BMKG数据显示，2026年7月已成为印尼自1991年有记录以来最干旱的7月。全国已有306个气象观测点出现连续60天以上无降雨的极端干旱状况。

According to BMKG data, July 2026 has become the driest July in Indonesia since records began in 1991. There are now 306 meteorological observation points across the country that have experienced extreme drought conditions of more than 60 consecutive days without rainfall.

与此同时，厄尔尼诺带来的高温以及干旱将扩大全球煤炭需求。咨询机构标普全球报告显示，2026年6月，日本、韩国、印度、孟加拉国、越南、菲律宾和马来西亚等亚洲主要市场的水电出力合计同比下降约13 GW。

Meanwhile, the high temperatures and drought caused by El Niño will increase global demand for coal. A report by the consulting firm S&P Global shows that in June 2026, the combined hydropower output in major Asian markets such as Japan, South Korea, India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia decreased by approximately 13 GW compared to the previous year.

Wind数据显示，截至8月4日，秦皇岛港5500大卡动力煤平仓价报832元/吨，同比上涨24.74%。

According to Wind data, as of August 4th, the spot price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 832 yuan per ton, up by 24.74% year-on-year.

国联民生证券认为，供给端在安监及环保等因素制约下预计长时间维持刚性，需求或面临阶段性波动，价格随之震荡。

Guolian Minsheng Securities believes that the supply side is expected to remain rigid for a long time due to factors such as safety supervision and environmental protection. Demand may experience periodic fluctuations, and prices will subsequently fluctuate accordingly.