国际能源署近日发布最新月度石油市场报告指出，受美国与伊朗谈判僵持、石油供应恢复进程受阻等因素影响，预计2026年全球石油需求将日均减少250万桶，较上月报告预测的降幅扩大94万桶。

The International Energy Agency recently released its latest monthly oil market report, stating that due to factors such as the stalemate in negotiations between the United States and Iran, and the obstruction of the oil supply recovery process, it is expected that global oil demand will decrease by an average of 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026, a 940,000-barrel increase compared to the forecast in the previous report.

预计2026年全球石油供应量将减少570万桶/日(约6%)，而此前的预测降幅约为4%。在供应紧张的情况下，全球库存正以创纪录的速度消耗。IEA的数据显示，8月份全球库存减少了310万桶/日。IEA在其月度报告中指出：“迄今为止，库存在平衡市场供需方面发挥了重要作用。”

It is projected that global oil supply will decrease by 5.7 million barrels per day (approximately 6%) in 2026, compared to the previous forecast of a 4% reduction. Under conditions of tight supply, global inventories are being depleted at an all-time rate. Data from the IEA shows that global inventories decreased by 3.1 million barrels per day in August. The IEA stated in its monthly report: "So far, inventories have played an important role in balancing market supply and demand."

国际能源署(IEA)表示，预计今年全球石油供应和需求的降幅将超过此前预期。由于在结束中东冲突方面未见进展，中东石油供应恢复正常的时间预计将推迟至2027年，导致燃料价格急剧飙升。

The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that it expects the decline in global oil supply and demand this year to be greater than previously anticipated. Due to the lack of progress in ending the conflict in the Middle East, the time for the Middle East's oil supply to return to normal is expected to be postponed until 2027, leading to a sharp increase in fuel prices.

报告指出，燃料价格高企特别是柴油价格上涨，将继续抑制石油消费。2027年全球石油需求有望日均增加260万桶，基本抵消今年的降幅。

The report indicates that high fuel prices, especially the increase in diesel prices, will continue to curb oil consumption. Global oil demand is expected to increase by 2.6 million barrels per day in 2027, largely offsetting this year's decline.

供应方面，8月全球日均石油产量环比减少160万~1.001亿桶，海湾地区仍有超过1000万桶的日产能处于停产状态。预计2026年全球石油供应量将日均减少570万~1.007亿桶。库存方面，全球可测石油库存自2月以来累计减少5.07亿桶，平均每日减少280万桶。

In terms of supply, the global average daily oil production decreased by 16 million to 100.1 million barrels in August compared to the previous month. In the Gulf region, there are still over 10 million barrels of daily production capacity that is out of service. It is expected that the global daily oil supply will decrease by 5.7 million to 100.7 million barrels in 2026. In terms of inventory, the cumulative global measurable oil inventory has decreased by 507 million barrels since February, with an average daily reduction of 2.8 million barrels.

报告显示，8月北海基准原油现货价格平均为每桶91美元，较7月上涨7.61美元，并于9月9日升至每桶113.48美元。与此同时，成品油市场供应趋紧，柴油裂解价差大幅上升，推动大西洋盆地炼油利润在8月升至创纪录水平。

The report indicates that the average spot price of North Sea benchmark crude oil in August was $91 per barrel, up by $7.61 from July, and reached $113.48 per barrel on September 9th. Meanwhile, the supply of refined oil products became tight, and the diesel cracking spread rose significantly, pushing the refining profits in the Atlantic Basin to a record level in August.

该机构指出，作为供需缓冲的库存正在减少，全球炼油体系的运作也已达到极限。“为了避免市场进一步紧张，现在比以往任何时候都更需要在中东冲突和进入第5个年头的乌克兰战争在解决进程上取得进展。” 此外，燃料价格达到历史最高水平也是导致需求降幅超预期的原因之一。IEA预测，今年全球石油需求将减少250万桶/日，而此前预测的降幅为160万桶/日。

The agency pointed out that the inventory serving as a buffer between supply and demand is decreasing, and the operation of the global refining system has reached its limit. "To avoid further market tightness, it is now more urgent than ever to make progress in the resolution process of the Middle East conflict and the ongoing Ukraine war that has entered its fifth year." Additionally, the fact that fuel prices have reached historical highs is also one of the reasons for the unexpected decline in demand. The IEA predicts that global oil demand will decrease by 2.5 million barrels per day this year, compared to the previous forecast of a 1.6 million barrel per day decline.