交易商权衡观望中东紧张局势进展和美元汇率波动，欧美原油期货交易清淡，盘中波动后收稳。周四(4月18日)纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油2024年5月期货结算价每桶82.73美元，比前一交易日上涨0.04美元，涨幅0.05%，交易区间81.56-83.47美元；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油2024年6月期货结算价每桶87.11美元，比前一交易日下跌0.18美元，跌幅0.21%，交易区间86.09-87.80美元。

过去三个交易日，投资者在很大程度上一直在平抑 石油市场的地缘政治风险溢价，布伦特原油期货在此期间下跌约3.5%，投资者认为以色列对伊朗4月13日袭击的住何报复都将受到国际压力而缓和。 欧佩克成员国委内瑞拉失去了美国允许其向全球市场出口石油的关键许可证,路透社称，预计这将影响其原油和燃料销售的数量和质量，同时引发一系列对美国个别交易授权的请求。美国还宣布对欧佩克成员国伊朗实施制裁，因上周未伊朗用无人机袭击了以色列，但新的制裁避开了伊朗的石油工业。然而能源咨询公司Riterbusch and Associates的分析师表示,对委内瑞拉和伊朗的制裁已经“在很大程度上被计入油价,并被市场置之不理。”机构Price Futures Group的高级市场分析师Phil Flynn表示:“现在我们已经经历了大规模抛售，人们正在悄悄回来。”他说，石油需求看起来很稳定，因为没有迹象显示经济放缓。石油经纪公司PVM的分析师Tamas Varga表示，国际社会对以色列的压力似乎将迫使以色列对伊朗周末的袭击做出“慎重而温和”的回应。他说，乌克兰对俄罗斯石油基础设施的无人机袭击也有所减少。该分析师周四在一份报告中表示:“随着源自俄罗斯和近东的风险溢价不断下降，那些有看涨倾向的人正变得冷漠。”美元再度走强也抑制了减缓了石油市场气氛，周四纽约交易时段午盘后，美元指数上涨0.2%，报106.15；美元指数今年迄今已上涨4.5%。受助于新订单和制成品出货强劲，美国大西洋沿岸中部地区4月制造业活动扩张速度为两年来最快。费城联储4月企业状况指数从3月的3.2急升至15.5，远高于经济学家的估计中值2.3。周四公布的美国其他经济报告不尽人意，数据显示，截止4月13日当周，美国初请失业金人数经季节性调整后持平于21.2万人,预期为21.5万人。能源公司Gelber and Associates的分析师在一份说明中说,“今天上午公布的美国宏观经济数据好坏参半,初请失业金人数与前一周持平，而成屋销售下降。美国劳动力市场的韧性推动了经济的发展,加上通胀率上升,导致金融市场和一些经济学家预计美联储可能会推迟到9月份才降息。美国页岩油产量稳定，未完工油井增加，意味着控制产量的缓冲力增强。美国能源信息署在报告中预测2024年5月份美国七个关键的页岩油生产区原油产量日均986.3万桶,比修正过的2024年4月份原油日产量数量增加1.6万桶，2024年4月份原油日产量被修正为984.7万桶，而原先估计为976.9万桶。其中北达科他州的巴肯页岩油日均产量将增长至124.9万桶，比修正过的2024年4月份日均增加4000桶，2024年4月份原油日产量被修正为124.5万桶，而原先估计为122.9万桶。2024年5月份美国得克萨斯州伊格福特页岩油日均产量将增长至116.4万桶，比修正过的2024年4月份日均增加5000桶，2024年4月份原油日产量被修正至115.9万桶，原先估计为114.9万桶；2024年5月份二叠纪盆地页岩油日均产量将增长至616.7万桶，比修正过的2024年4月份日均增加1.2万桶，2024年4月份原油产量日均615.5万桶，原先估计为611.2万桶。预计2024年5月份俄克拉荷马州阿纳达科盆地和落基山地区奈厄布拉勒页岩油地区平均日产量分别为38.5万桶和71.1万桶，分别与前月持平和减少4000桶。预计2024年5月份包括马塞勒斯和尤蒂卡地区在内的阿帕拉契亚页岩油日均产量15.2万桶，比2024年4月份日均减少1000桶。预计2024年5月份海恩斯维尔地区页岩油日均产量稳定在3.5万桶。美国能源信息署报告还显示，2024年3月份这七个地区已经建设但未完工油井4522座，比2024年2月份数量增加9座。其中2024年3月份二叠纪盆地未完工油井886座，比2024年2月份数量增加4座；2024年3月份伊格福特地区未完工油井352座，比2024年2月份数量减少2座；2024年3月份巴肯地区328座，增加4座；2024年3月份阿纳达科盆地703座，增加2座；2024年3月份海恩斯维尔地区784座，增加6座；2024年3月份阿帕拉契亚地区820座，增加7座，2024年3月份奈厄布拉勒地区649座,减少12座。

As traders weighed developments in Middle East tensions and fluctuations in the U.S. dollar, U.S. and European crude oil futures stabilized in light trade after intraday swings. On Thursday (April 18), West Texas Light crude oil for May 2024 settled at $82.73 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up $0.04, or 0.05%, from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $81.56 to $83.47; Ice Brent crude for June 2024 settled at $87.11 a barrel, down $0.18, or 0.21 percent, from the previous session, in a trading range of $86.09 to $87.80.

Investors have largely been calming the geopolitical risk premium in oil markets over the past three sessions, with Brent crude futures down about 3.5 percent over that period, on the assumption that any Israeli retaliation for Iran's April 13 attack will be tempered by international pressure. Opec member Venezuela has lost a key U.S. license that allows it to export oil to global markets, Reuters said, which is expected to affect the quantity and quality of its crude and fuel sales while triggering a flurry of requests for individual U.S. trading authorizations. The United States also announced sanctions against Opec member Iran for a drone attack on Israel last week, but the new sanctions sidestep Iran's oil industry. However, analysts at energy consultancy Riterbusch and Associates said sanctions on Venezuela and Iran had been "largely priced into oil prices and ignored by the market." "Now that we've had a massive sell-off, people are creeping back in," said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at institutional Price Futures Group. He said oil demand looks stable because there are no signs of an economic slowdown. Tamas Varga, an analyst at oil brokerage PVM, said international pressure on Israel looks set to force a "measured and moderate" response to Iran's attack over the weekend. Drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure in Ukraine have also decreased, he said. "With risk premia emanating from Russia and the Near East falling, those with a bullish bias are turning cold," the analyst said in a note on Thursday. Also dampening the mood in oil markets was renewed strength in the dollar, which was up 0.2% at 106.15 by midday in New York. The dollar index is up 4.5 per cent so far this year. Factory activity in the U.S. mid-Atlantic region expanded at its fastest pace in two years in April, helped by strong new orders and shipments of manufactured goods. The Philadelphia Fed's business conditions index surged to 15.5 in April from 3.2 in March, well above economists' median estimate of 2.3. Other U.S. economic reports on Thursday were disappointing, with data showing initial claims for state unemployment benefits unchanged at a seasonally adjusted 212,000 for the week ended April 13, versus expectations of 215,000. Analysts at energy firm Gelber and Associates said in a note that "U.S. macroeconomic data released this morning was mixed, with initial jobless claims unchanged from the previous week while existing home sales fell." The economy has been boosted by the resilience of the U.S. labor market, which, along with rising inflation, has led financial markets and some economists to anticipate that the Fed may hold off on cutting interest rates until September. Steady U.S. shale production and a rise in uncompleted Wells mean a stronger cushion to keep output in check. In the report, the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecast 9.863 million barrels per day of crude oil production in the seven key U.S. shale oil producing areas in May 2024, an increase of 16,000 barrels per day from the revised April 2024 crude oil production volume, which was revised to 9.847 million barrels per day from the original estimate of 9.769 million barrels per day. The Bakken shale in North Dakota will grow to 1.249 million barrels per day, up 4,000 barrels per day from the revised April 2024 average, which was revised to 1.245 million barrels per day from the original estimate of 1.229 million barrels per day. Eagleford shale oil production in Texas will increase to 1.164 million barrels per day in May 2024, an increase of 5,000 barrels per day from the revised April 2024 average, and April 2024 crude oil production will be revised to 1.159 million barrels per day from the original estimate of 1.149 million barrels per day. Permian shale oil production will grow to 6.167 million barrels per day in May 2024, an increase of 12,000 barrels per day from the revised April 2024 average of 6.155 million barrels per day from the original estimate of 6.112 million barrels per day. Production in the Anadarko Basin of Oklahoma and the Nieblale shale oil area in the Rocky Mountain region is expected to average 385,000 and 711,000 barrels per day in May 2024, respectively, unchanged and down 4,000 barrels per day from the prior month. Appalachian shale oil production, which includes the Marcellus and Utica regions, is expected to average 152,000 barrels per day in May 2024, down 1,000 barrels per day from April 2024. Shale production in the Haynesville area is expected to stabilize at 35,000 barrels per day in May 2024. The EIA report also shows that 4,522 Wells were under construction but not completed in the seven regions in March 2024, an increase of nine Wells from February 2024. Among them, there were 886 uncompleted Wells in the Permian Basin in March 2024, an increase of 4 Wells compared to February 2024. There were 352 uncompleted Wells in the Eagleford area in March 2024, two fewer than in February 2024. 328 in the Bakken region in March 2024, an increase of 4; 703 in the Anadarko Basin in March 2024, an increase of 2; 784 in the Haynesville area in March 2024, an increase of 6; The Appalachian region had 820 units in March 2024, an increase of 7, and the Naeblale Region had 649 units in March 2024, a decrease of 12.