财联社8月12日讯：作为全球能源运输的咽喉要道，霍尔木兹海峡的通行过去几个月因美伊冲突受到严重扰乱，供需失衡导致能源价格飙升。

Caixin News 8/12: As a key artery for global energy transportation, the passage through the Strait of Hormuz has been severely disrupted in recent months due to the conflict between the United States and Iran. The imbalance in supply and demand has led to a sharp increase in energy prices.

然而，根据美国能源部长克里斯·赖特（Chris Wright）的最新说法，波斯湾地区的石油出口量已恢复到战前水平，仅霍尔木兹海峡的原油出口量就达到了七天平均每天近900万桶。

However, according to the latest statement by US Energy Secretary Chris Wright, the oil exports from the Persian Gulf region have returned to pre-war levels. The crude oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz alone have reached nearly 9 million barrels per day on average over a seven-day period.

如果这些数字准确的话，就表明尽管伊朗设置了障碍，美国仍然能够维持通过海峡的大宗石油贸易，但赖特的估计远远超过了任何其他主要油轮运输追踪机构或能源分析师的估计。

If these figures are accurate, it would indicate that despite Iran's obstacles, the United States is still able to maintain large-scale oil trade through the strait. However, Wright's estimate is far beyond those of any other major oil tanker tracking agency or energy analyst.

“得益于美国军方和海湾盟友的协调努力，目前霍尔木兹海峡的石油七日日均输油量已接近900万桶，”赖特周二在社交媒体上发帖称：“加上每天通过新升级的管道和出口设施输送的500万至700万桶石油，目前该地区的石油总流量平均约为每天1500万桶。”

"Thanks to the coordinated efforts of the US military and its Gulf allies, the daily oil throughput through the Strait of Hormuz has now reached nearly 9 million barrels in seven days," Wright posted on social media on Tuesday: "Adding to this, the 5 to 7 million barrels of oil that are transported daily through the newly upgraded pipelines and export facilities, the total oil flow in this region is currently averaging approximately 15 million barrels per day."

赖特还表示，上周日有超过2000万桶石油离开该地区，高于战前经由霍尔木兹海峡的日均石油运输量。

Wright also stated that over 20 million barrels of oil left the region last Sunday, which was higher than the daily average oil transportation volume through the Strait of Hormuz before the war.

不过，在赖特发表帖子后，几位能源分析师表示，他们的预测比赖特的估计低了数百万桶，其中包括欧亚集团高级分析师Gregory Brew，他认为七天平均流量接近500万桶/天。

However, after Wright posted his message, several energy analysts stated that their predictions were several million barrels lower than Wright's estimate. Among them was Gregory Brew, a senior analyst at Eurasia Group, who believed that the average flow over seven days was close to 5 million barrels per day.

“实际上……没有证据支持900万桶/日的说法，” Obsidian Risk Advisors的执行合伙人Brett Erickson表示。

"Actually... there is no evidence to support the figure of 9 million barrels per day," said Brett Erickson, the executive partner of Obsidian Risk Advisors.

与此同时，美国目前预计，美伊战争导致的日均约60万桶的石油供应受阻将持续到明年年底，因冲突继续阻碍石油经关键航道霍尔木兹海峡运输。

Meanwhile, the United States currently estimates that the daily disruption of approximately 600,000 barrels of oil supply caused by the US-Iraq war will continue until the end of next year, as the conflict continues to impede the transportation of oil through the key shipping lane of the Strait of Hormuz.

根据美国能源信息管理局（EIA）《短期能源展望》的估算，今年第二季度，日均490万桶石油经霍尔木兹海峡运输。相比之下，2025年第四季度为日均2,160万桶，当时美国和以色列尚未对伊朗发动袭击。

According to the estimate of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its "Short-Term Energy Outlook", in the second quarter of this year, an average of 4.9 million barrels of oil were transported through the Strait of Hormuz per day. In contrast, in the fourth quarter of 2025, the average was 21.6 million barrels per day, at which time the United States and Israel had not yet launched attacks on Iran.

这些数据表明，签署所谓的谅解备忘录并短暂停火，并未明显缓解此次供应中断对市场的影响。此次中断的严重程度在全球能源市场历史上亦属罕见。

These data indicate that signing the so-called memorandum of understanding and briefly suspending hostilities did not significantly alleviate the impact of this supply disruption on the market. The severity of this disruption is also unprecedented in the history of the global energy market.

目前，霍尔木兹海峡重新开放的前景仍充满变数。伊朗与阿曼尚未就重新开放霍尔木兹海峡达成协议，尽管有官员表示谈判正在取得进展。此外，伊朗最高领袖顾问穆赫贝尔11日在社交媒体上说，在伊朗的条件得到满足之前，霍尔木兹海峡不会开放。

At present, the prospects for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remain uncertain. Iran and Oman have not yet reached an agreement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, although some officials have stated that negotiations are making progress. Additionally, on November 11th, the advisor to the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mohbehel, said on social media that the Strait of Hormuz would not be opened until Iran's conditions were met.

与此同时，也门胡塞武装11日表示，该组织对一艘位于曼德海峡的沙特军事装备运输船发动袭击。也门海岸警卫队称，胡塞武装袭击的是一艘商船，导致6人死亡、10人受伤。

Meanwhile, the Houthi rebels in Yemen said on the 11th that they had launched an attack on a Saudi military equipment transport ship located in the Manda Strait. The Yemeni Coast Guard stated that the Houthi rebels targeted a merchant ship, resulting in 6 deaths and 10 injuries.

“这种模式不断重演：谈判初期看似充满希望时，市场热情高涨，但这种乐观情绪很快就会消散，”荷兰国际集团（ING）分析师在一份报告中指出：“然而，石油市场仍然高度受新闻事件驱动，导致价格剧烈波动。”

This pattern keeps repeating: at the beginning of the negotiations, there seems to be a lot of hope, and the market becomes highly enthusiastic. However, this optimistic mood will soon fade away. "The Dutch International Group (ING) analysts pointed out in a report: "Nevertheless, the oil market is still highly driven by news events, leading to sharp price fluctuations."