进口印尼低卡华南到岸价较同品种内贸煤价格优势为-46元/吨；进口澳洲5500大卡华南到岸价较同品种内贸煤价格优势为-40元/吨。但国内市场不受干扰，市场报价下浮，下游观望增多。港口调进充足，缓慢垒库，而下锚船不多，煤价继续下行之旅。

The landed price of imported Indonesian low-calorie coal to South China is 46 yuan per ton lower than the domestic market price of the same type of coal; the landed price of imported Australian 5500 kcal coal to South China is 40 yuan per ton lower than the domestic market price of the same type of coal. However, the domestic market is not affected and the market quotations have dropped. There is more hesitation among the downstream users. There is an adequate supply of coal at the ports, with a slow accumulation of stocks, while there are not many ships anchored, and the coal price continues its downward trend.

上周至今，大秦线、张唐线等集港铁路处于满发状态，推动港口库存继续增加；叠加即期需求延续低迷以及即将进入电煤季节性消费淡季，导致市场情绪受抑制，价格稳中偏弱运行。市场处于 “强预期”与“弱现实” 的激烈博弈中，短期动能略显疲态，正通过价格的微调来测试下方支撑的稳固性，并向上寻求止跌反弹的突破口。

Since last week, the major railway lines such as the Daqin Line and the Zhangtang Line have been operating at full capacity, driving the increase in port inventories. Coupled with the continued sluggishness of spot demand and the upcoming seasonal low demand period for thermal coal, the market sentiment has been restrained, and the prices have been stable but slightly weak. The market is in a fierce game between "strong expectations" and "weak reality". The short-term momentum is showing signs of fatigue, and it is testing the stability of the support level through minor price adjustments, while also seeking a breakthrough for a bottom-feeding rebound.

受大集团外购价格下调以及港口市场疲软、下游“买涨不买落”等因素影响，市场情绪趋于谨慎。化工等终端维持刚需补库，站台及煤场采购节奏放缓，部分煤矿拉煤车减少，价格承压下行。随着物流总承包签订落实，贸易商发运增多，除“小天窗”外，大秦线日发运量拉高至120-130万吨，港口库存得以补充。

Due to the reduction in purchase prices from large groups, the sluggishness of the port market, and the "buy up rather than buy down" mentality of the downstream sector, market sentiment has become cautious. Chemicals and other end products maintain their need-based replenishment of inventory, the purchasing pace at stations and coal yards has slowed down, and the number of coal trucks at some coal mines has decreased. Prices have been under pressure and have declined. With the signing and implementation of logistics general contracting agreements, the number of shipments by traders has increased. Apart from "small windows", the daily shipment volume on the Dalian-Changzhi line has risen to 1.2-1.3 million tons, and port inventories have been replenished.

环渤海港口动力煤市场交易不活跃，用户继续维持谨慎观望，采购市场煤积极性偏低迷；港口贸易商出货有难度，部分报价仍略有松动，但市场实际成交有限。上周后半程开始，电厂日耗加快恢复，实际耗煤接近节前的80-90%；但电力终端库存多有保障，采购现货意愿持续偏低，对市场支撑很弱。尽管国际煤价延续强势，但内贸市场受需求不振，叠加港口垒库等因素制约，仍僵持偏弱运行。煤市逐渐进入淡季，依靠长协足以支撑市场需求，终端对高煤价抵触心理日益增强。贸易商陆续分化，少数仍在挺价，降价出货的贸易商增加，但销售依然冷清。

The market trading of thermal coal in the ports along the Bohai Sea is not active. Users continue to maintain a cautious wait-and-see attitude, and the enthusiasm for purchasing local coal is relatively low. It is difficult for port traders to deliver goods. Some quotations have slightly loosened, but the actual market transactions are limited. Starting from the latter half of last week, the daily consumption of power plants has accelerated its recovery, and the actual coal consumption has approached 80-90% of that before the festival. However, the inventories of power terminals are mostly well-secured, and the willingness to purchase spot coal remains persistently low, which has little support for the market. Although international coal prices continue to remain strong, the domestic market is constrained by weak demand, coupled with factors such as port stockpiling, and thus remains in a stalemate and weak state. The coal market is gradually entering the off-season. Long-term contracts can sufficiently support market demand. The terminal's resistance to high coal prices is increasing day by day. Traders are gradually differentiating. A few are still maintaining prices, while the number of traders reducing prices and selling has increased. However, sales remain sluggish.

当前市场运行的核心矛盾，依然是“进口成本高企叠加发运成本两大因素支撑煤价刚性底部”与“电厂去库缓慢，港口开始垒库，下游无动于衷”之间的拉扯。供应端的支撑逻辑并未改变甚至有所强化，全球最大出口国印尼的减产政策与斋月影响依然持续，中东地缘冲突推高海运风险与能源比价，共同导致进口煤到岸成本与内贸价格强势倒挂，进口补充持续减少，这也为内贸煤价提供了坚实且难以撼动的“政策底部”与“成本支撑”，意味着国内煤价难有大跌行情。

The core contradiction in the current market operation remains the tug-of-war between "the high cost of imports combined with the two factors of transportation costs, which support the coal price at a rigid bottom" and "the slow process of power plants reducing inventory, the start of port stockpiling, and the lack of response from the downstream sector". The supporting logic on the supply side has not changed and even strengthened. The production reduction policy of the world's largest exporter, Indonesia, and the impact of Ramadan continue to prevail. The geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have increased the risks of maritime transportation and the energy price ratio, jointly leading to a strong inversion between the landed cost of imported coal and the domestic market price. The continuous reduction in imported coal supplementation has provided a solid and unshakable "policy bottom" and "cost support" for the domestic coal price, meaning that there will be no significant decline in domestic coal prices.